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After the remnants of Hurricane Rosa delivered the rainiest October day ever to the Phoenix area this week, causing flooding and closings schools, another hurricane may be inclined to track the same path next week, according to the latest longer-term forecast models.
On Tuesday, Sergio became a major hurricane—the ninth of the Northeast Pacific 2018 season so far—and is expected to strengthen, perhaps to Category 4. The biggest question about Hurricane Sergio is, however, Where is the storm ultimately headed?
Hurricane Sergio is currently 855 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, and moving west-northwest at 12 miles per hour in the Pacific. With maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, Sergio was a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. The latest official National Hurricane forecast model shows Sergio taking a more westerly turn in the Pacific soon, away from Baja California and the desert Southwest—for now.
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Longer term, however, Hurricane Sergio spaghetti models, including the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European models, show Sergio running into resistance in its forecasted westerly path, and perhaps taking a turn back, directly along Hurricane Rosa's path—making landfall along Baja California and moving into Arizona, bringing more rain. Rainfall forecast models across the U.S. for the next two weeks show heavier than normal rainfall for the desert Southwest.
For the moment, and in the next few days, Hurricane Sergio is moving across open water in the Pacific, encountering favorable conditions for strengthening.
"The western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn westward," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, in its latest forecast update on Sergio.
The hurricane is expected to reach peak intensity in the next 36 hours and will begin gradual weakening after that due to drier mid-level air. It is expected to remain a hurricane through the next five days, however.
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After that, Baja California and the desert Southwest including Arizona will be keeping an eye on Sergio to see if the storm does indeed turn back to the east as longer-term models suggest. If so, more rain could benefit drought-parched areas while parts of Arizona, including Phoenix, might encounter more flooding when they haven't yet cleaned up from Hurricane Rosa's historic drenching.
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