Hurricane Sergio Update, Path, Spaghetti Models, NOAA Timing 2018: Where is Hurricane Sergio Headed for Landfall?

Hurricane Sergio has made an anticipated turn in the Pacific and is now heading northeast at six miles per hour toward a forecast landfall path as a tropical storm across Baja Mexico on Friday. Sergio is then predicted to track Saturday across southern Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas before settling into Oklahoma as a tropical depression or remnant low late Saturday night, according to the latest National Hurricane Center update.

"Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.

Hurricane Sergio is currently a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, located 1,225 miles west, southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days, according to the latest forecast, but the storm has a high certainty of hitting Mexico and then traversing into the southwest U.S. as a heavy rain maker with flash flooding potential. The rain could also benefit some drought-stricken U.S. areas.

Hurricane Sergio Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Sergio spaghetti models, including the official National Hurricane Center forecast (the red line), show the storm tracking across Mexico Friday before moving into the southwest U.S. on Saturday.

"Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. "At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States."

Sergio is expected to approach Baja California on Friday with winds of 60 miles per hour, with winds of 40 miles per hour as it moves across New Mexico Saturday. Hurricane Sergio's timing for landfall and inland movement is as follows, according to the National Hurricane Center:

--Friday, Sergio hits Baja California as a tropical storm.

--Late Friday, early Saturday, Sergio moves inland across the Mexico state of Sonora as a tropical storm.

--Saturday, Sergio moves inland across the southwest U.S., including New Mexico, and northern Texas, bringing potentially heavy rain.

--Late Saturday, early Sunday tropical depression or remnant low from Sergio is in Oklahoma, bring rain to southern Kansas and northern Texas.

"Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment," the National Hurricane Center said. "Afterward, the cyclone should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall."