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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Today in 1979, Iranian militants seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, eventually holding diplomats for 444 days and draining the authority of the Carter administration amid economic discontent. He was ousted a year later.
Exactly 47 years later, another U.S. entanglement with Iran has dealt a blow to a different White House resident.
The semiofficial Iranian state media outlet Tasnim noted the anniversary by publishing a graphic of Trump next to Carter with the title "From Carter to Trump, how Iran got U.S. presidents into trouble." Both presidents have two large red Xs on their faces.
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The cartoonish taunt follows the resounding U.S. midterm election victory for Democrats, who won majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Trump is still in office, but his "regime" is considerably diminished because he will need Democratic support to pass new laws.
Discussing the Republican losses, Trump himself admitted "I think a part of it was Iran," as news rolled in of Senate seats in Texas, Kansas and Iowa being flipped by the Democrats.
Trump's reasoning for the joint strikes on Iran launched on February 28 ranged from advocating for regime change to destroying the Islamic Republic's nuclear capabilities, contradicting his pledge for no forever wars.
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But Tehran's response of regional strikes and choking the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for oil and gas, have spiked energy prices globally with Americans feeling the pinch at the pump.
"It's the war stupid," Reid Smith, vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together posted on X on Tuesday night as the results gave Democrats at least 54 seats in the Senate and 228 in the House of Representatives.
Now a war aimed at weakening Iran's regime has actually diminished Trump in the final two years of his presidency.
"Trump is lucky that there have been few U.S. casualties so far but the knock-on effect has been sustained rising prices at home," said Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics expert at England's University of Surrey.
"Voters in Texas, Kansas and Iowa may have next to no interest in foreign affairs and may still support the nebulous concept of 'America First'—but what they will never support is an unnecessary hit in the wallet."
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How Important Was the Iran War for Voters?
Foreign policy is seldom a decisive factor for Americans at the polls, but prices are, especially with gasoline rising by more than a third since Trump returned to the presidency—to an average of $4.27.
"The most compelling factor for voters was the cost of living," said Shanahan.
"In February, the economy was growing reasonably well, Trump had got his tax-cutting One Big Beautiful Bill through Congress and inflation was under control. But then he attacked Iran," he said.
However by the time the elections came around, more than three-quarters (77 percent) of voters considered the Iran War "extremely" or "very important," next to the economy and healthcare, according to a Gallup poll last week.
Ending the war with Tehran, was only behind jobs and the cost of living as priorities for voters in six swing states, according to a NetChoice/Echelon Insights poll last month.
Democrats succeeded in contrasting the Trump 2024 message of "America First" with a war that has spiked fuel and fertilizer prices in red states, especially the rural areas of Iowa, Texas, Kansas, and North Carolina which have flipped to the Democrats.
"Trump promised no endless wars. Iran proved that promise empty," said Shanahan.
Conservative commentator Matt Walsh wrote on X: "The Iran War is the greatest political blunder in the last two decades at least," adding, "a catastrophically stupid decision. An unforgivable betrayal of America First principles."
National Iranian American Council (NIAC) President Jamal Abdi said if Trump had extricated the U.S. from the war through a negotiated settlement with Tehran prior to the election, the outcome would have been different.
"Instead, the U.S. government continues to spend billions in taxpayer dollars to maintain a blockade and war footing, the Strait of Hormuz remains contested and fuel prices continue to drive an affordability crisis for millions of Americans," he told Newsweek in a statement.
"Voters have granted Democrats majorities in the House and Senate with a clear mandate: end this war," he said.
Officials in Iran have viewed with delight the GOP losses and mocked Trump as getting his comeuppance for the war and portraying him as a weakened leader.
Hamidreza Moghaddamfar, adviser to the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), pinned GOP losses to the "the heavy defeat of the United States in warmongering against Iran."
Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf posted on X: "conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message."
However, Aurélien Colson, co-director of the Center for Geopolitics, Defense & Leadership at ESSEC Business School said he would be cautious about calling the Iran war the single decisive factor in GOP losses.
"This weak confidence in the economy compounded general dissatisfaction with Trump’s leadership but the Iran war clearly acted as a powerful amplifier because it translated foreign policy directly into household economics."
As the party in power, the GOP was already facing the normal midterm penalty of holding the White House.
But strikes on Iran reinforced two damaging narratives, that Trump had failed to deliver on his promise of no new wars, and that his foreign policy was making everyday life more expensive, Colson said.
"The Iran war mattered because it stopped being foreign policy—at the gas pump, it became domestic policy."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Trevor Davies
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