...
By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
The United States and Israel have commenced a military joint operation against Iran, resulting in strikes against several major cities. U.S. President Donald Trump has called on Iranians to take this opportunity to rise up against the Islamic Republic—a risky bet in the face of a nation that has dug in for a protracted defensive war.
It comes after Trump ordered the largest buildup of U.S. military firepower to the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
He had expressed a preference for diplomacy and had engaged in negotiations with Iran but constantly maintained the military threat. Now that threat has been unleashed, with Trump naming Iran's missile capabilities and navy as prime targets while offering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) an opportunity to lay down their arms or face "certain death."
US Attacks Iran
Pentagon to Brief Press Monday on Iran Military Operation3 min read
Where Is Ayatollah Khamenei? What We Know As Israel Calls For Regime Change3 min read
Trump Strikes Iran: The 5 Scenarios for What Happens Next6 min read
However, his primary message early Saturday morning was not to Tehran's rulers, who he derided as "a vicious group of very hard, terrible people," but to the Iranian people.
"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take," Trump said. "This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight."
"Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass."
Already, however, Iran has responded with retaliatory missile strikes against Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East. Tehran has long been preparing for just such a conflict.
Far from the conclusion, the battle appears to be just beginning as the Islamic Republic fights for its survival, counting on both attritional warfare prowess and a lack of unified opposition.
...
Saving Face
The latest strikes mark the second time Trump has ordered military action against Iran amid ongoing nuclear talks. During previous diplomatic efforts last June, Israel launched a sweeping series of attacks against sites and personnel attached to Iran's nuclear and missile program, with the U.S. conducting an unprecedented bombing of Iran's three most heavily fortified nuclear sites at Esfahan, Fordow and Natanz.
Throughout those dozen days, Iran launched hundreds of missile and drones against Israel and, in response to the U.S. attack, hit the U.S.'s largest base in the Middle East, Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, with a missile strike shortly before Trump called for a ceasefire.
Tensions re-emerged with a nationwide series of protests that began in Iran in late December and swelled into a nationwide movement early last month.
Trump accused Iranian security forces of suppressing the demonstrations through deadly force, claiming some 32,000 killed during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night. That figure matches with some of the higher estimates issued by a number of monitors based abroad, while the Iranian government has placed the death toll at over 3,100, including more than 500 members of the security forces, who officials claim were targeted by foreign agitators.
At the height of the unrest in Iran last month, Trump called on "Iranian patriots" to "keep protesting" and "take over your institutions." He promised "help is on the way" in the form of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group that later arrived in the seas surrounding the Persian Gulf by the time Iranian security forces had put down what authorities claimed to be riots spurred by foreign infiltrators.
Trump then opted for a return to nuclear negotiations.
After two rounds of talks, he set on February 19 a 10–15-day deadline, just short of the time it would take a second carrier strike group attached to the USS Gerald R. Ford to reach the shores of Israel on Friday. During the 12-Day War and two previous Iranian attacks against Israel amid the ongoing confrontation between the two nations sparked by the war in Gaza, U.S. aircraft and air defenses played a pivotal role in intercepting incoming strikes.
Recent reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say Tehran is far from submitting.
"A short while ago, sirens were sounded in several areas across the country following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel," the IDF said. "The public is requested to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command. At this time, the Israeli Air Force is operating to intercept and strike threats where necessary to remove the threat.
The defense is not hermetic."
Iranian media has cited military officials as stating that any military facilities in the region deemed to be supportive the U.S. and Israel would be viable targets, as reports emerge of strikes against U.S. bases in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Opposition Disunity
Trump's appeal to the Iranian people comes amid strife among various entities, many of them based abroad, seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic
Among the most prominent figures is Reza Pahlavi, son of the former pro-West shah of Iran who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution that established the nation's current theocratic system. Based in the U.S., he has commended U.S. and Israeli action against Iran, stating his intention to lead a democratic future for Iran, while capitalizing on his monarchical heritage.
Trump acknowledged Pahlavi's position during the height of the protests last month but ultimately declined to specifically endorse him. Rather, he stated at the time, "I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges."
Amid the current turmoil, Pahlavi issued a directive for Iranians to "stay alert and ready to return to the streets for the final action at the appropriate time, which I shall communicate to you."
"Follow my messages through social media. If disruptions occur in the internet and satellite broadcasts, I will remain in contact with you via radio," Pahlavi said. "We are very close to final victory. I hope to be with you as soon as possible so that together we may reclaim Iran and rebuild it.”
Another faction garnering significant media attention from abroad is the National Council of Resistance of Iran, led by the Mojahedin-e Khelq (MeK). The former communist militia once battled both the shah and the Islamic Republic during their respective eras, emerging in recent decades as an underground dissident group sharing alleged state secrets, especially regarding nuclear and military activities.
Led by Maryam Rajavi, based in France, this group has fostered contacts with a number of U.S. figures, including those once within Trump's first administration inner circle, such as Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Rudy Giuliani.
The MeK issued its own proclamation on behalf of Rajavi in the midst of the U.S.-Israeli strikes, a 10-point plan that included the dismantling of the Islamic Republic's velayat-e faqih system through which Khamenei rules with absolute authority and all of its institutions, political freedoms, gender equality and non-nuclear commitments, among other items, including "peace, co-existence and international and regional cooperation."
The extent to which either group commands a major following in Iran is debatable, though some footage indicates instances of protesters chanting pro-Pahlavi slogans, while pro-MeK circles have fiercely discredited the evidence as largely fabricated.
Within Iran itself, the situation is even more fragmented.
Some among the reformist camp still seek change from within, a message represented within Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's successful 2024 election against an array of hard-liners following the death of staunch principlist President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.
Others have aligned with ethnic factions, such as the newly formed Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan. This bloc includes a number of Kurdish organizations that have longed opposed the Islamic Republic, including the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan.
The coalition drew stark criticism from Pahlavi, who accused Kurdish groups of undermining Iran's territorial integrity through separatist ambitions.
Kurds represent roughly 10 percent of the Iranian population, which is majority Persian. Significant Kurd populations also exist in Iraq, Syria and Turkey, all of which have also expressed concern about Kurdish separatism, with U.S. NATO ally Turkey especially opposed to groups with ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.
Some Kurdish groups have openly claimed attacks against Iranian security forces during the protest movement last month.
Another coalition to emerge in recent months is the People's Fighters Front, comprised of ethnic Baloch militias, with the most prominent faction being the Islamist militant Jaish al-Adl. Baloch insurgency has been at the center of tensions between Iran and neighboring Pakistan, which is now engaged in its own battle with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, another historic foe of Tehran, putting the spotlight on a porous triangle between the three nations.
Other armed groups in Iran have also organized along the lines of Iran's Arab and Azeri minorities.
And among the Sunni Islamist camp in Iran is the regional branch of the Islamic State (ISIS), known as the Khorasan Province (ISIS-K, or ISKP). ISIS militants have struck from within Iran on several occasions, including the deadliest attack in the Islamic Republic's history in January 2024, and are considered a major threat across the region and beyond.
Thus far, the U.S. has yet to designate any desired successor to the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Asked about the potential fallout should the Iranian government collapse late last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers, "no one knows who would take over."
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines