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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas Republicans may face a competitive race in the 2026 Senate election in November against Democratic state Representative James Talarico, who secured his party’s nomination on Tuesday, according to polls.
While Talarico received enough votes to avoid a runoff against Representative Jasmine Crockett, Republicans will again face off in a runoff in May, as no candidate received 50 percent of the vote. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who challenged him from the right, advanced to the runoff.
The question of electability will loom over that GOP runoff. Some Republicans are concerned that Paxton, who leads many early polls of the runoff, would be a weaker general election candidate than Cornyn, who is well-known among Texas voters and has easily won reelection in the past. A recent Emerson College poll showed Paxton tied with Talarico, while Cornyn held a lead.
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Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek on Wednesday that a Paxton victory in the primary would be “an electoral disaster down ballot in Texas and simultaneously jeopardize the House GOP majority and the Senate GOP majority.”
Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Despite Texas’s status as a reliably Republican state, having backed President Donald Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024, Democrats view the Senate seat as a potential pickup opportunity in November. Democrats are hoping Trump’s slipping approval rating and a messy runoff on the Republican side could bolster their chances in November.
The results of the GOP runoff could determine how competitive the general election becomes. Cornyn supporters have said a Paxton victory would make the race more competitive, but Paxton supporters have said the incumbent senators are insufficiently supportive of Trump, who has not said whether he would endorse in the primary.
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Talarico vs. Cornyn, Paxton Polls
The general election is eight months out, but polls are already measuring where candidates stand among Texans.
The latest poll of the race was conducted by YouGov and the University of Houston. It showed a tight race regardless of who becomes the nominee. Cornyn led by one point (44 percent to 43 percent), while Paxton led by two points (46 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20-31, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
But an Emerson College poll showed a tied race between Paxton and Talarico, each at 46 percent, while Cornyn led by three points (47 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,165 registered voters from January 10-12, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A Ragnar Research Partners survey from last year similarly pointed to a tie between Paxton and Talarico, each with 44 percent support. In that poll, Cornyn led Talarico by six points (46 percent to 40 percent). It had surveyed 1,000 likely voters from November 12-17, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton Runoff: What Polls, Betting Odds Show
The most recent polls of the race give Paxton an advantage over Cornyn in the runoff, set for May 26.
A Blueprint Polling survey showed that Paxton had 49 percent support and Cornyn 36 percent in the runoff. Sixteen percent remained undecided. According to that poll, Cornyn would need to win the vast majority of undecided voters to receive a majority in the runoff.
It surveyed 1,001 Texas voters from February 23-24, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A McLaughlin & Associates poll, which surveyed 800 Texas Republican primary voters from February 9-12, showed Paxton with 50 percent and Cornyn with 38 percent support in the primary.
The YouGov and University of Houston poll gave Paxton 51 percent support and Cornyn 40 percent support.
Kalshi’s betting odds favor Paxton as of Wednesday morning, giving him a 54 percent chance of winning the nomination; Cornyn’s chances stood at 45 percent.
Why the 2026 Texas Senate Race Matters
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats have only two obvious flip targets. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, are top targets in the 2024 election.
They are also defending seats in Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.
No other GOP seats in states Harris won or Trump won by a single-digit margin are up for grabs. That means that Democrats have to win double-digit Trump states to secure a Senate majority. Democrats are eyeing Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
If Democrats win every seat they currently hold and flip Maine and North Carolina, they would still be held to a 51-49 minority. But if they flip two of those more Republican-leaning states, they could win a majority. This means that Texas could become one of the most important races of the midterms.
But Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, when Democrat Lloyd Bentsen won reelection. Since then, it has exclusively elected Republicans to the upper chamber of Congress.
In 2018, Democrats came close to winning, with former Representative Beto O’Rourke losing by fewer than 3 points to GOP Senator Ted Cruz. Democrats have hoped the state would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas.
There were signs of Texas becoming closer in some elections. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to under 6 points in 2020. But in 2024, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest showing in more than a decade. His inroads with Latino voters helped boost his margin in Texas.
What People Are Saying
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek: “Recent public polling has shown James Talarico either tied or ahead of Ken Paxton if he is the nominee, which would be an electoral disaster down ballot in Texas and simultaneously jeopardize the House GOP majority and the Senate GOP majority. Senator Cornyn is by far the strongest GOP nominee, as public polling has also shown. With midterm headwinds approaching, the GOP needs to put its strongest team on the field to advance Trump’s legislative agenda.”
State Representative James Talarico said on Tuesday night: “This movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and this country. We launched this underdog campaign six months ago in my hometown of Round Rock, Texas, and since then, tens of thousands of Texans have shown up to rally with us in every corner of the state.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton said on X Wednesday morning: “Thank you, Texas. Last night, in a historic failure for John Cornyn, he failed to get nearly 60% of the GOP vote after spending $100 million. It's time to finish the job in the runoff. Help me fire John Cornyn once and for all.”
Representative Jasmine Crockett wrote on X: “This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee. Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track. With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win. I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect democrats up and down the ballot.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters still give Republicans an advantage in the seat. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Republican.
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