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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Democratic candidate James Talarico’s chances of defeating Republican Ken Paxton have slipped after the latter secured the GOP nomination in Texas’ U.S. Senate race.
On Tuesday night, state Attorney General Paxton—who secured the backing of President Donald Trump, —defeated incumbent John Cornyn, a four-term senator, with 62 percent of the vote when the race was called by the Associated Press.
Since then, prediction markets have shifted in Paxton’s favor, though with over five months to go until Election Day, the race remains fluid.
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The November contest is expected to test whether Democrats can break through in a state they have not carried for statewide office since the mid-1990s. Blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, combined with recent polling and prediction market movements, suggest the race is competitive.
Newsweek reached out to Talarico's campaign by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
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Betting Odds
According to prediction market Polymarket, Talarico's chances of winning the Texas Senate election have dropped by 5 percentage points since Tuesday, falling from 45 percent to around 40 percent at the time of writing on Thursday.
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes 61% · No 40%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Meanwhile, Kalshi places Talarico’s probability of winning at 43 percent, down from roughly 44 percent earlier in the week.
BetOnline said in a release that after Paxton won his runoff, pricing shifted back toward the GOP after Talarico was previously a slight favorite.
Paxton is at -125 while Talarico is at -105. In essence, this means the race is competitive, with Paxton a slight favorite.
What the Polls Have Said
Polling has suggested a competitive race, with no clear frontrunner emerging across multiple surveys.
Early polling had suggested the race was evenly matched. In January, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,165 Texas voters found that, in a then hypothetical matchup, Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45.6 percent.
Talarico, a Presbyterian pastor and state lawmaker, would secure the Democratic nomination in March, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett.
By April, several polls showed Talarico had taken the lead, as Republicans remained divided by their primary contest. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted between April 17 and 20, had Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent.
Another April poll of 1,200 registered voters from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas found Talarico ahead of Paxton by 8 points (42 percent to 34 percent) in a general election matchup.
A poll of 1,223 registered Texas voters conducted between April 22 and May 6 predicted a dead heat between the candidates, with both receiving 45 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
Taken together, the polling suggests a race that has evolved from an early dead heat to a period of Democratic strength, before narrowing again as Republican voters consolidate behind a single nominee.
Talarico is polling ahead of where Beto O’Rourke stood at this stage of the 2018 Texas Senate race, offering an early sign that Democrats may be entering the 2026 contest on comparatively stronger footing.
The comparison suggests Democrats may be starting from a more competitive position than in 2018, when O’Rourke, then a Democratic congressman from El Paso, energized the party with his campaign against Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
Still, the Cook Political Report continues to classify the race as Lean Republican, reflecting the state’s long-standing GOP advantage.
What Have Paxton and Talarico Said About the Race?
"Today, change was on the ballot and change won,"Paxton said from a makeshift stage in the Trinity River ballroom at the Dallas/Plano Marriott to a crowd of supporters and staff after his runoff victory. **"**This Senate seat doesn’t belong to Washington. It belongs to you, the hard-working men and women of this state."
Paxton, whom Trump described as "a MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas," framed the result as a rejection of establishment politics and positioned himself as aligned with grassroots conservative voters, emphasizing issues such as border security and opposition to federal overreach during his campaign.
Talarico’s campaign has faced scrutiny over past remarks and positions that have been seized on by Republicans. His 2021 remark during a legislative debate that “God is nonbinary” has been repeatedly highlighted in Republican messaging and advertising, alongside his advocacy for LGBTQ+ rights, as part of an apparent effort to define him as too liberal for a statewide race.
Talarico has cast the race as a choice between what he describes as “corruption and extremism” and a more moderate, policy-focused approach to governing.
“Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America,” Talarico told a crowd of supporters in Houston on Wednesday. “He has failed the character test. He has put his own interests above the laws of Texas. Those are not my words, those are the words of Ken Paxton’s fellow Republicans.”
Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives in 2023 over allegations including abuse of office and corruption-related claims, which he has denied. The Senate acquitted him.
Texas will head to the polls on November 3, 2026.
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