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By Alice Gibbs
Senior Reporter
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The race for a Senate seat in Texas may be on the verge of breaking through for the Democrats for the first time since 1988.
Two closing polls show James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by similar margins in the race—a huge shift for a candidate who, until recently, was a relatively unknown state-level Democrat.
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: What Latest Polls Show
Talarico received 51.3 percent compared with 45.4 percent for Paxton in an AtlasIntel poll, giving Talarico a 5.9-point lead ahead of voting this week.
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The poll surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 using AtlasIntel’s online Random Digital Recruitment method. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll gives Talarico a 7-point advantage with 50 percent to Paxton’s 43.
The Texas portion surveyed 5,708 likely voters from October 23 to November 1. With a reported margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, Talarico’s lead is about twice that figure. The result therefore points to an advantage rather than a statistical tie, but uncertainty remains around the exact size of the lead.
Both closing polls show Talarico ahead, by six points in AtlasIntel and seven points in NYT/Siena. The similarity between the results strengthens the evidence that the Democrat held a late polling advantage, but neither poll predicts the election result.
The two polls show some of Talarico's strongest margins in the closing stages of the race, although other recent surveys have shown a tighter contest.
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YouGov had Talarico four points ahead, Texas Southern University had him two points ahead and CNN/SSRS put his advantage at six points. A Quantus Insights poll gave Paxton a one-point lead. A Trafalgar Group survey conducted October 31 to November 1 found the candidates tied at 48 percent.
Talarico, 37, is a former public-school teacher who currently represents part of the Austin area in the Texas House. Described as an economic populist, the Democrat has announced policy proposals. These include repealing tax cuts for the top 1 percent of earners, providing universal childcare and capping credit card interest rates.
Talarico supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, health care reform and institutional reforms including term limits for members of Congress and banning congressional stock trading.
Ken Paxton, 63, is the Republican nominee and Texas attorney general; it is an office he has held since 2015 after previously serving in the Texas Legislature. Paxton reached the general election after defeating four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn for the GOP nomination.
A staunch ally of President Donald Trump, Paxton has pledged to advance the president's America First agenda in the Senate. This would be done by cutting taxes, tightening immigration enforcement and completing construction of the border wall. He opposes abortion, supports gun rights and has called for reductions in federal spending and regulation.
On the economy, Paxton has proposed new tax deductions for housing, health care and family expenses.
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Stakes for Senate Control
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats on the Democratic side.
Because Republican Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie, Democrats need to reach 51 seats to take control, meaning they must produce a net gain of four seats.
The most-straightforward route would be to retain all 13 seats on the ballot, including competitive races like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, while flipping at least four Republican-held seats.
Victory for Talarico would give Democrats one of the four Republican-held seats they need, leaving the party needing three further net pickups if it successfully defended all its existing seats. While a win for Ken Paxton would preserve the Texas seat for Republicans, forcing Democrats to find all four necessary gains elsewhere.
Why the Texas Race Matters
Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Republicans have continued to win recent Senate races comfortably. In 2024, Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred 53.1 percent to 44.5 percent, an 8.6-point margin. The state also backed Trump by roughly 14 points in the 2024 presidential election.
Turnout has already gone well beyond the last midterm, with more than 7.6 million early ballots already cast, over 94 percent of the total 2022 turnout.
At a rally in Lubbock on October 27, Talarico addressed an estimated 4,000 attendees where he said that "Texans are ready for change."
"We are done with the extremism and the corruption. We're done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new," he told the crowd.
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At a separate rally, also in Lubbock on the same night, President Trump addressed a crowd gathered for Paxton.
"If you go out and vote, we’re going to have a tremendous win in Texas," Trump told supporters, adding "We can’t lose the votes. It’s very close, and they can turn things."
Trump’s apparent concern about the Democrat’s ability to take Texas has been echoed by other Texas Republicans.
"Texas is excruciatingly close," Senator Ted Cruz said on an episode of his podcast last week. "We could lose Texas."
"Now, some conservatives, they say, ‘I don't trust the polls. The polls are all wrong,’" Cruz said. "Well, let me tell you that there is a bias in the polls. They do skew left, but I can tell you, having run a lot of campaigns, have examined a lot of numbers, these data are not fake. The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."
Texas Comptroller Don Huffines, who is running for election as the state's chief financial officer, also issued a warning on X this week. "We are losing Texas," he warned. "Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA."
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
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