James Talarico's chances of beating Jasmine Crockett in Texas primary

Texas state Representative James Talarico speaks during a campaign launch rally on September 09, 2025 in Round Rock, Texas.

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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

Reporter

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U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett leads state Representative James Talarico in the Democratic primary for Texas’ Senate race, according to a new poll.

Newsweek reached out to the Crockett and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Texas has long been a ruby red state, having not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and voting for the Republican presidential candidate in the last 12 White House races. Democrats are in need of a few upsets if they hope to flip the majority in the upper chamber in the 2026 midterms as they currently face a challenging map and need to flip four seats while defending in tight races to retain ones they already have.

Jasmine Crockett Leads New Primary Poll

The latest poll of the Texas Senate primary, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows Crockett with an 8-point lead over Talarico.

Crockett’s support stood at 47 percent, while 39 percent said they planned to cast their vote for Talarico. Another candidate, Ahmad Hassan, received 2 percent support, while 12 percent of respondents said they were still undecided. Those undecided voters could ultimately be critical to the eventual outcome of the Senate race.

Democratic voters expressed overall approval of both potential candidates, with 84 percent viewing Crockett favorably and 79 percent viewing Talarico favorably. Eight percent said they view Crockett unfavorably, while 6 percent said the same of Talarico. Eight percent said they do not know enough about Crockett, while 15 percent said the same about Talarico.

The poll surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20 to January 31, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points. Of those respondents, 550 each were classified as likely voters in the Democratic and Republican primaries.

Democratic strategist Joel Montfort told Newsweek Crockett’s performance in the debate, as well as her name recognition and outspoken style of politics, have contributed to her lead.

“Crockett's lead is not surprising to me. She came into this race with a much higher national profile. Talarico has been playing catch-up to get his name out there in Texas,” he said.

Democratic strategist Dallas Jones told Newsweek that Crockett and Talarico’s campaigns are focusing on similar issues of affordability and supporting the working class, so the primary debate has been more so defined by their styles.

“What we see emerge is the idea of what type of style is it that will appeal most to the electorate and voters of Texas,” he said. “What type of style do they want to send to Washington? That’s the biggest stark difference between these two candidates.”

Crockett’s lead is unsurprising, Jones said, noting that she held a “healthy lead” in polls prior to her entry into the race.

He also said he believes it's a “good thing” Texas Democrats are having an “important” discourse about which candidate is better to represent the state’s values.

“Hopefully that person will ultimately prevail and ignite an electorate that exists but has been dormant in the state in terms of turning it blue over the last couple decades,” Jones said.

When Is The Texas Senate Primary?

The primary will be held on March 3, 2026. However, if no candidate receives an outright majority of support—50 percent—a runoff election would be held on May 26, 2026

Texas’ Democratic Senate Primary Heats Up

The primary race between Crockett and Talarico has become increasingly contentious in recent weeks.

The issue of “electability” has loomed over the race, as some of Crockett’s critics expressed concerns about whether she would be a strong candidate in the general election.

Texas State Representative James Talarico speaks during a campaign launch rally on September 9, 2025, in Round Rock, Texas.

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They have pointed to remarks by Crockett that Hispanic Trump voters had a "slave mentality” and her referring to GOP Texas Governor Greg Abbott as “Governor Hot Wheels” as potential issues. Crockett supporters, however, have said some questioning her electability may be doing so because she is a Black woman.

That has led to fierce debate between supporters of Crockett and Talarico.

Earlier in February, a TikToker’s allegation that Talarico called former Democratic Representative Colin Allred, who ran for Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz's seat in 2024, a "mediocre Black man" added to the tension.

Talarico said that was a “mischaracterization of a private conversation.”

"In my praise of Congresswoman Crockett, I described Congressman Allred's method of campaigning as mediocre—but his life and service are not," he said in a statement.

Crockett told The Fort Worth Star-Telegram she understands Allred “felt like it was his responsibility to speak up for himself and speak up for other Black men.” She said she has never heard Talarico “say anything racial” but the Senate race has been “racially charged.”

The pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC highlighted concerns about Crockett’s electability, pointing out Republicans helped push her into the race because they view her as a weaker candidate.

Crockett told Dallas news station KDFW in response to the ads that Talarico had been “signaling” for donors to get involved. A Talarico spokesperson told KXAN the campaign had no involvement in the ad and that Talarico “has made it crystal clear from day one that he wants to run a positive campaign focused on records and ideas.”

Both the attack ad and claims regarding Allred have sparked fierce Democratic infighting between supporters of Crockett and Talarico, threatening to divide the party at a point when leaders have sought unity heading into the midterms.

Montfort warned negative campaigning is a “double edged sword in a primary.”

“It can weaken the winner and then be repurposed by the other party in the general. These candidates may think the mud they are flinging is just at each other, but some of it may end up in Ken Paxton's hand to be used as a weapon later,” he said.

Still, Montfort said Democrats will “unite behind whoever ends up being the nominee” because they know “what is at stake this election cycle.”

What Do Other Polls Show About Race Between Crockett, Talarico?

A poll released by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) last month showed Crockett a single-point lead over Talarico (38 percent to 37 percent), with 21 percent of voters saying they remain undecided. It surveyed 1,290 likely Democratic voters from January 14 to January 21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

But an Emerson College poll gave Talarico a lead over Crockett (47 percent to 38 percent). It surveyed 1,165 voters from January 10-12, ,2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Paxton Leads Competitive GOP Primary

In the GOP primary, Paxton, viewed as the most conservative candidate, led Cornyn and Hunt, according to the University of Houston poll released on Monday. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote for him, compared to Cornyn’s 31 percent support and Hunt’s 17 percent.

Trump has not yet backed a candidate in the primary.

Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, has faced criticism from parts of the Republican base, driven in part by his support for a 2022 bipartisan gun‑safety bill and past comments about Trump.

Paxton enters the race with strong backing from the party’s more conservative supporters and Trump‑aligned voters, despite his legal controversies and prior impeachment by the state House in 2023.

Hunt, a rising GOP figure, has added a third lane, complicating the path to a majority and increasing the likelihood of a runoff.

How Would Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico Fare in General Election?

The poll also asked about six potential general election scenarios.

Paxton led Crockett by two points (45 percent to 43 percent) and Talarico by two points (46 percent to 44 percent). Cornyn led Crockett by two points (45 percent to 43 percent) and Talarico by one point (44 percent to 43 percent). Hunt led Crockett by three points (46 percent to 43 percent) and Talarico by four points (46 percent to 42 percent).

Red-Leaning Texas Becomes Senate Battleground

Democrats have had their eyes on Texas for years in hopes blue-shifting suburban areas could make the state more competitive. At the presidential level, that did play out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrunk from nearly 16 points in 2012 to nine points in 2016 to under six points in 2020.

But in 2024, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest showing in more than a decade. His inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters helped boost his margin in the Lone Star State.

But Democrats believe it still has the potential to be competitive in 2026 as polls show a tight race and his approval slipping among all voter groups, including Hispanic and Latino voters.

Democrats also have little choice but to contest the Senate race in Texas if they hope to flip the Senate.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats have only two obvious flip targets. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by three points, are top targets.

Beyond that, no GOP-held seats in single-digit Trump or Harris-won states are up next year, meaning Democrats must target seats in double-digit Trump seats like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Texas.

What People Are Saying

Crockett, previously to Newsweek: “We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat. Right now, the Republicans have been losing all over this country, and even when they're not losing, well, those margins are shrinking. But more importantly, I think that our base is hungry for something different.”

Talarico, previously to Newsweek: “I started off this campaign by saying I don't see politics as left versus right, I see it as top versus bottom. And I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. And so I'm trying to bridge those divides. I'm trying to bring people together across party, across race, across religion and gender, to take power back for working people.”

What Happens Next

Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the general election, as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as "Likely Republican." Kalshi’s odds show betters have wagered on Republicans, with 67 percent betting on the GOP, but that is down from 80 percent at the start of January.

Update 2/9/26, 12:16 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Montfort.

Update 2/9/26, 5:03 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Jones.

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