...
By Amanda Greenwood
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
The total number of births in Japan this year is expected to come in below 670,000—far fewer than the official forecasts put forth by the country's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, and the lowest since records began in 1899.
Why It Matters
With nearly 30 percent of the population over 65—which, according to United Nations benchmarks, could reach 40 percent by 2070—Japan is classified as a "super-aged" society.
Read More on News
...
Japan, like many high- and middle-income countries, has struggled to stabilize its declining birth rate amid the rising cost of living, stagnating wages, and shifting attitudes among younger generations toward work-life balance and parenthood.
The birth rate has been declining faster than even the government’s most pessimistic projections.
What To Know
Data analyzed by demographic experts suggests that Japan could be on track to record fewer than 670,000 births in 2025, according to the Financial Times.
They based their calculations on preliminary data for the first 10 months of 2025.
This would mark the lowest annual figure since the government began tracking births in 1899. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, in forecasts updated in 2023, had expected 749,000 births in 2025 and did not predict a dip below 670,000 until 2041.
By comparison, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare recorded 686,061 births in 2024—a 5.7 percent decline from the previous year—while the number of deaths outnumbered births for the 18th consecutive year, resulting in a net population loss of more than 900,000.
This demographic descent has continued despite escalating government interventions. In 2024, Japan committed roughly $23 billion over three years to boost the birth rate through initiatives like expanded child allowances, subsidized fertility treatments, and workplace reforms.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also established the Population Strategy Headquarters in November 2025, after calling the birth crisis the country’s “biggest problem.” The body is rolling out new programs aimed at removing economic, social, and structural barriers that can discourage people from having children.
What People Are Saying
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated at the inaugural meeting of the Population Strategy Headquarters in November: "Recognizing that the greatest challenge facing our country is population decline, we have established the Population Strategy Headquarters to comprehensively promote countermeasures."
Masakazu Yamauchi, a demographer at Waseda University, told the Financial Times that the expected 2025 birth total “is likely to represent a 3 percent drop from 686,000 in 2024. That would mark the 10th consecutive year of record-low births."
Fumio Kishida, the previous prime minister, said in 2023: “The youth population will start decreasing drastically in the 2030s. The period of time until then is our last chance to reverse the trend of dwindling births."
What Happens Next
Preliminary figures confirming 2025’s birth total are expected in early 2026.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines