Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump in Six Key Battleground States, New Poll Shows

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's polling lead over President Donald Trump has remained steady in nearly all battleground states, but he's pulled further ahead in Arizona and Wisconsin.

Biden is leading Trump in the most recent Morning Consult polls conducted in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — with those numbers remaining largely unchanged despite the recent party conventions. But in Arizona, the former vice president has surged 12 points since early August and now leads Trump by 10 points after trailing him just three weeks ago. And in Wisconsin, where the August 23 police shooting of Jacob Blake sparked racial unrest throughout the state, Biden has also increased his lead.

In each of the above six potential swing states, Biden holds far more support among women and independent voters, but lags among men. However in Arizona, Biden's 52 to 42 percent lead over Trump includes a 10 point gain in support among male voters. Biden also holds a 7-point lead among suburban Arizona voters and a 15-point lead among Arizona women.

The Biden campaign has already spent millions in Arizona through August in an effort to flip the longtime Republican state for the first time since Bill Clinton won it in 1996.

Although within the statistical margin of error, Trump only slightly increased or held his his lead among Ohio and Texas voters between early and late August. Biden has maintained small leads in Minnesota and Colorado.

The Democratic and Republican national conventions did not appear to change voter opinion much in the 2016 presidential contest either, although Biden is eight points ahead of where then-candidate Hillary Clinton sat at about this same time four years ago. The largest difference between 2020 and 2016 is that nearly one-fifth of national voters still remained undecided after both the DNC and RNC four years ago. The national Morning Consult poll this year shows Biden holding the favorability of 51 percent of the electorate compared to 55 percent who continue to view the president unfavorably.

Nearly all polls of U.S. voters on the national level show Biden with a slight edge over Trump.

One of the few states where Trump is performing particularly well against Biden is in Missouri, where a Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump with a sizable 11-point lead over Biden. A poll by the same group also showed Trump clinging to a small lead among Michigan voters last week.

Most swing state numbers have changed little, if at all, between Morning Consult's early and late August polls. Biden maintains a two-point lead in Florida and North Carolina, a four-point lead in Pennsylvania and a nine-point lead in Wisconsin.