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By Jenni Fink
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Senator Jon Ossoff enters the 2026 election cycle as a slight favorite, giving Republicans a chance at flipping the seat, but they have to make it through a fractured Republican primary first, which is now headed to a runoff.
Despite Ossoff being one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection, his popularity could be a problem for Republicans. The election also comes as national headwinds are going against President Donald Trump, who only won the state in 2024 by two points, because of the Iran war and frustrations over the cost of living, putting Republicans in a tight spot heading into November.
Polls also show that Republicans don't have a single candidate polling ahead of Ossoff, though some are doing better than others. And, none of their candidates have ever won a statewide office in Georgia.
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According to the Associated Press as of 9:58 p.m. ET, Republican Representative Mike Collins will advance to a runoff election versus one other candidate. Collins has 41.6 percent of the vote compared to Derek Dooley's 28.5 percent and Earl L. Carter's 25.8 percent with 59 percent of the vote counted.
Americans are betting on Ossoff to win the election, with Democrats getting an 83 percent probability on Kalshi, compared to Republicans' 17 percent. But polling shows it's likely to be a closer race.
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Losing to Mike Collins, According to Polls
Collins emerged as the leading Republican candidate in the primary, holding a consistent edge over his rivals in public polling. However, he never cracked the 50 percent mark, indicating in advance that the Republican primary was likely to go to a runoff.
Despite Collins being a Republican favorite, no poll showed him winning a general election over Ossoff. An Echelon Insights poll from April showed Collins getting 44 percent of support from voters in a hypothetical match-up against Ossoff, compared to Ossoff's 51 percent.
Dragging on Republicans in Georgia is the sentiment voters have toward Trump. In the poll, 57 percent of voters in Georgia disapproved of Trump's handling of his presidency, and a larger share, 59 percent, disapproved of his handling of the economy. The economy and inflation are the top issues for Georgia voters, according to the poll.
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Collins' support in a general election has held pretty steady since February, when a poll from Emerson College found he had 43 percent support, compared to Ossoff's 47 percent.
Collins has positioned himself as a Trump ally, telling Atlanta's 11Alive at the end of April that the president has "gotten this right" regarding the war in Iran.
"You know, as a matter of fact, Western civilization has been at war with this radical Islamic terrorist regime over there for 47 years," Collins said during the interview. "We're setting ourselves up where we don't have to depend on the Middle East for our oil."
The Iran war has spiked energy and oil prices in the United States at a time when Americans are already feeling the pinch of inflation. But Collins said he supports the war because it's moving the United States toward energy independence and using resources in our own country instead of relying on the Middle East.
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Losing to Buddy Carter, According to Polls
While Trump's popularity in Georgia is teetering on the edge, Carter has positioned himself as a "MAGA warrior" who will fully support Trump's agenda if he's elected to the Senate. Instead of focusing on policy positions, Carter has tried to appeal to voters by claiming that he is the only candidate who can win in an election against Ossoff.
“If Derek Dooley is our candidate, we lose,” Carter told The New York Times. “If Mike Collins is our candidate, we lose.”
Collins, he said, has too much baggage, referencing the congressman's past social media posts and the House Ethics inquiry that he's facing. The inquiry focuses on claims that an intern had a relationship with a member of his staff and received pay without doing any work.
Carter also isn't polling ahead of Ossoff in any survey so far, and polls indicate Ossoff may have a slight edge over him, though it's minimal.
An Echelon Insights poll from April showed Carter getting 43 percent of support from voters in a hypothetical match-up against Ossoff, compared to Ossoff's 52 percent. The Emerson College poll showed Carter had 43 percent in February, compared to Ossoff's 47 percent.
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Losing to Derek Dooley, According to Polls
Former University of Tennessee football coach Dooley has positioned himself as a political outsider and alternative to the more traditional Republican candidates. While he trailed Collins and Carter for much of the race, an Insider Advantage poll from the days before the primary showed him jump into the second position. Going into the primary, Dooley was in second, with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Carter with 21 percent. Collins led at 32 percent, according to the survey.
While Republicans had hoped that Governor Brian Kemp would run for Senate, he decided not to enter the race and instead backed Dooley. He and Dooley are childhood friends, and Kemp has campaigned for the former coach.
“I don’t know if y’all have noticed, but we haven’t done so well in U.S. Senate races here in the state of Georgia in the last several cycles,” Kemp said at a campaign stop. “We’ve got to have the right person.”
Dooley has attempted to craft a middle-ground message aimed at appealing to both Trump supporters and more moderate voters—an approach that reflects broader Republican concerns about electability in Georgia. He's leaned into his experience as a football coach, working with many different people, and said voters need someone who can find common ground in a politically fraught world.
In a head-to-head match-up, Dooley only gets 41 percent of the vote, compared to Ossoff's 48 percent, according to an Emerson College survey.
Why Ossoff Still Has the Edge
Despite Ossoff being locked in a tight race, he has the advantage of being able to use his entire war chest working toward the general election since he's running unopposed. He's also got the advantage that Trump hasn't endorsed a candidate yet, which could have rallied Republicans around one candidate ahead of the primary.
“Jon Ossoff has $24 million. Jon Ossoff is on TV all of the time, carefully articulating his positions, grilling Tulsi Gabbard — really being methodical,” Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist unaffiliated in the race, told Politico. “He has tons of resources — great name ID, a lot of exposure — while the Republicans are fighting against each other, trying to see who can break out and ultimately be the nominee.”
With no candidate reaching the 50 percent threshold to win outright, the runoff means there will be protracted Republican infighting as candidates race toward the June runoff. It gives Ossoff an opportunity to galvanize Democrats, increase his fundraising and even use the Republicans fighting against them as voters look toward the general election.
It also means Republican candidates will have to spend more money to win the runoff, leaving them at a potential financial disadvantage heading into the general election.
The lack of a unified front has already raised alarms within the GOP, as party leaders worry that infighting could weaken their chances in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
“Ossoff is a remarkable political talent,” Joel McElhannon, a retired Republican strategist in Georgia, told The New York Times. “It’s going to be very, very difficult to beat him.”
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