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By Anna Rahmanan
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Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has expressed support for electing presidents by national popular vote, raising the prospect that America's most coveted swing states could voluntarily surrender the power that makes them so politically valuable.
There is something of Shakespeare's King Lear in the proposition: a ruler contemplating the division of his kingdom, confident that his influence will survive the surrender of his crown.
For what it’s worth, Shapiro, for his part, seems untroubled.
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Speaking at a Pod Save America event on Saturday, he said: "I think Pennsylvania can still play a massive role even in a national popular vote."
Is that confidence justified? Several Democratic governors may soon have to figure that out.
The Swing States That Could Give Up Their Power
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact offers a way to make the nationwide popular vote decisive without formally abolishing the Electoral College.
Through this compact, participating states would agree to award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the most votes nationally, regardless of their own statewide results. The arrangement would take effect once enough participating states collectively control 270 electoral votes.
The compact relies on states’ constitutional power to decide how their electoral votes are awarded. This means they do not have to give them to the candidate who wins the most votes within said state.
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The compact currently has the backing of states representing 222 electoral votes but Democratic victories in the 2026 midterms have opened a pretty unique possibility: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada now have Democratic control of their governorships and legislatures.
Together, they possess 61 electoral votes. Their accession could bring the compact to 283, enough to make the popular vote decisive in 2028, assuming it survives legal challenges.
The irony is that these are precisely the states, of which the agreement would diminish the political importance .
The Price of Pennsylvania’s Crown
Under the current system, Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes make it an extremely important state, a fact that offers presidential candidates powerful incentives to court its voters.
Pennsylvania isn’t alone.
According to FairVote's analysis of the 2024 election, 94 percent of in-person presidential campaign events between the party conventions and Election Day occurred in seven battleground states.
Under a national popular vote, these swing states’ residents would retain their electoral importance as individuals but Pennsylvania, for example, would lose much of its privileged position in presidential campaign calculations.
A vote gained in Philadelphia would count the same as one gained in Los Angeles. Candidates would have less reason to lavish attention on Pennsylvania simply because its statewide result was uncertain.
Lear's mistake was believing he could relinquish authority while retaining its privileges. The analogy has limits, but the bargain confronting swing-state governors is recognizable.
A Governor Who Refused to Abdicate
There is already a precedent for resisting this particular bargain.
In 2019, Nevada's Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak vetoed legislation to join the compact, despite its passage through his party-controlled legislature.
He warned that it "could diminish the role of smaller states like Nevada in national electoral contests."
His objection was practical: Nevada had acquired influence disproportionate to its population because presidential elections were competitive there.
The opposing case is equally substantial: supporters of the compact argue that every presidential vote should carry equal weight. Under the existing arrangement, millions of Republican voters in reliably Democratic states and Democratic voters in reliably Republican states receive comparatively little campaign attention.
A national contest could broaden that attention, although candidates might concentrate on densely populated areas or places where additional votes were cheapest to obtain.
The compact also faces constitutional questions over interstate agreements and congressional approval.
Who Will Surrender the Crown?
Shapiro has expressed openness, but has yet to commit Pennsylvania to joining. Wisconsin's incoming Democratic governor, David Crowley, has also indicated interest, while leaders elsewhere seem less certain.
The most pressing question at the moment is whether these states will enact the compact before 2028, likely as a result of the midterm outcomes.
In King Lear, the king discovers too late that surrendering his kingdom means surrendering his power.
America’s swing states have no such excuse as they know precisely what they would be giving away. Are they willing to do it anyway?
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