10
Loading video...
By Jordan King
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Final polls show a tight U.S. Senate race in Iowa, with Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek locked in a statistical dead heat.
Out of six polls conducted during October and early November that Newsweek reviewed, neither candidate led by more than 3 percentage points. Turek held a 3-point advantage early last month, while also leading by 1 point in two polls and 2 points in another. Hinson, meanwhile, held a 2-point lead in two separate surveys. All leads fell within the polls' margins of error.
Iowa’s Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst has ended up becoming one of this year’s most competitive, despite the Hawkeye State voting for the GOP in Senate elections since 2008. Republicans are trying to hold onto their seats in the state, with other high-stakes contests including the governor's office and three competitive House districts.
Read More on News
Democrats see the race as a rare opportunity in the agricultural heartland, capitalizing on voter frustration over economic strains stemming from President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and rising domestic fuel prices tied to the war in Iran—pressures that have hit Iowa farmers particularly hard.
The Cook Political Report lists the race as a “toss-up” in Iowa, which has historically backed presidential candidates from both political parties. Trump won Iowa the last three election cycles, but before that, former President Barack Obama won Iowa twice.
Both candidates have made bipartisan appeals to swing voters. Turek has described himself as a “proud moderate” and praised Trump’s handling of border security. Hinson, who has Trump's endorsement, has insisted she would not hesitate to challenge the president if necessary for her state.
In one of her most notable departures from Trump and her own past voting record, Hinson last month called for an “immediate end” to the conflict in Iran, stating that Iowans were being “squeezed” economically as a result of the war.
Newsweek contacted Turek and Hinson, via email on Monday, for comment.
Related Story
Hinson and Turek Distance Themselves From Their Parties in Bid to Win Iowa
...
What Final Polls Say
Turek’s 3-percentage point lead was found last month by a Marist University poll that surveyed 1,100 likely voters between October 8 to 11. For Turek, 48 percent said they would support him while 45 percent said they'd supported Hinson. The survey's margin of error of +/- 6.6 percentage points.
In a *New York Times/*Siena poll that was conducted between October 26 and November 1 among 705 likely voters, Turek led with 48 percent over Hinson’s 47 percent. The poll's margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Turek also had a 1-percentage point lead in a YouGov poll that was conducted between October 26 and 29 among 2,016 unweighted likely voters. Fifty percent said they would support Turek while 49 percent said they'd support Hinson. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points when its full sample size of 2,020 likely voters was surveyed.
An Echelon Insights poll that was carried out between October 16 and 23 showed Turek leading 45 percent compared to Hinson's 43 percent. The survey, which polled 403 likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 6.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Hinson had a 2-percentage point advantage over Turek with 47 percent support over his 45 percent in an InsiderAdvantage poll carried out among 1,200 likely voters between October 21 and 22. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.83 percentage points.
Hinson saw the same advantage against Turek (47 percent to 45 percent) in an Emerson poll that surveyed 650 likely voters between October 5 and 6. The survey has margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Latest Developments in Iowa’s Senate Race
The Sunday before Election Day saw Trump campaign for Hinson and other Republican candidates in Dubuque, Iowa. During his rally, he said: “We’re going to elect ‘America first’ Republicans up and down the line.”
Hinson’s final push for votes took place on Monday when her “Fighting for Iowa” tour stopped at Fort Madison, Davenport and Des Moines. Last week, Turek’s campaign released its “closing ads” for the race, focusing on rising fuel and healthcare costs while attacking Hinson’s record.
As of Sunday, around 464,008 early ballots had been returned, according to independent election data aggregation website Call the Map.
On Tuesday, polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Central Time, according to Iowa's secretary of state.
Newsweek*’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here*. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Daniel Orton and Anthony Murray.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines