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Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek on Wednesday in a video of the two playing basketball, recalling his two Iowa victories and encouraging voters to back Turek's bid for the U.S. Senate.
Iowa, a state that backed Obama in both of his campaign runs, emerged as a Republican stronghold over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. While Iowa remains a Republican-leaning state, Democrats see it as one of several pickup opportunities in their effort to win back the Senate majority.
The race will be a barometer of whether Democrats can regain ground in the Midwest after a decade of losses in the region. Polling points to a close race between Turek, a state legislator, and Representative Ashley Hinson. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection. Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat in the state since Senator Tom Harkin's election in 2008.
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"As much as some tag Iowa as a red state these days, I still argue that it's purple, even if on the reddish side of it. The key, as always, will be the independents, what we call No Party voters here in Iowa," Tim Hagle, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek in an email.
Steffen Schmidt, emeritus professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek in an email, "The Iowa Senate race is as dead heat as I've seen."
He added that the endorsements, Trump for Hinson and Obama for Turek, "are a wash," noting that "Independents will be the deciding factor in this context."
Newsweek has reached out to Turek and Hinson’s campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday.
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Iowa Senate Race
Turek, the Democratic nominee, is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state House member, first elected in 2022. In a video released Wednesday, Turek and Obama played a version of the basketball game "H-O-R-S-E," with the letters "I-O-W-A."
While shooting hoops, the two spoke about Iowans and their future, with Obama saying, "I know a little something about winning Iowa," a reference to his 2008 caucus victory that springboarded his presidential campaign.
Turek said while playing, "Everywhere we go, urban areas, rural areas, people are ready for change."
"Of all the things I’ve done in politics, Iowa was my favorite thing," Obama continued. "There was just a magic about regular folks showing up in gyms like this, and just talking out, how do we move our state forward, how do we move the country forward."
Obama ended the video emphasizing his endorsement, "I’ve seen enough. Not only did I get whooped. But you’ve got here, a man of character, somebody who knows how to win. Now the ball is in your court, Iowa. Let’s make sure that we send Josh Turek to the United States Senate."
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek in an email Wednesday, "We have the race as Leans Republican, so we do view it as competitive, but it's still ultimately a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points, so it's a heavy lift for any Democrat." Ernst, who was the first woman to represent the state in the Senate, won by 6.5 points in 2020. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Iowa race in June from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Kondik added, "I doubt the Obama endorsement is all that meaningful. Obama did win the state twice, but it was a different state back then. Maybe it's partially a signal to donors?"
Hagle also noted that Obama's endorsement may not really impact the race. "Endorsements often don't mean all that much unless the endorser gets out and campaigns or actively supports the candidate in some other way." He continued, "Obama engaging might help to motivate the Democrats' base, but it likely won't do much to convince No Party voters."
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The race now pits Trump and Obama against each other, although neither may move the needle for independents. Trump has endorsed Hinson, who was first elected to represent the state in 2020, after serving in the state House and working as a journalist.
"I know Ashley well and she is a WINNER! A Loving Wife and Proud Mother of two sons, Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate," Trump said in a Truth Social post in September.
The party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have overperformed in special and state elections the past year, helping fuel optimism among some in the party for the 2026 November elections.
Trump's Policies' Impact on Iowa
In addition, the war in Iran has impacted Iowans and emerged as a voting issue. As Hinson, who backed the war, has addressed the deaths of Iowa service members, Turek has warned against a prolonged conflict that could draw the United States deeper into the region and drive up prices.
Hagle noted, "I don't think Republican farmers are willing to abandon Trump or his preferred candidates yet, but if things don't improve over the next few months there might not be as much enthusiasm for getting out and voting."
David Peterson, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek in an email, "Trump's policies have been quite bad for Iowa," adding, "Farmers are really struggling and it is really easy for people to draw a straight line from Trump’s policies on trade and the war with Iran to their own finances."
Schmidt added, "The unknown factor that could give the Democrat an edge is the terrible condition so many farms are facing. Tariffs, competition from China, expensive diesel and gas prices suggest that many Republican voting farmers and rural folk could vote for a Democrat this time."
Democrats are still facing an uphill battle to take back control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms despite polls showing competitive races for Republican-held seats in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas with less than 100 days to go.
Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, previously told Newsweek, "Democrats like Troy Jackson and Josh Turek are the new faces of the Left’s socialist takeover, campaigning on an agenda to raise taxes, green-light reckless spending, and make life even less affordable for American families."
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What Polls Show in the Iowa Senate Race
Polling averages suggest a competitive contest. RealClearPolling's average shows the race tied at 46.7 percent each, while other polling averages give Hinson a narrow advantage.
A Fox News poll found Turek inching ahead of Hinson, 50 percent to her 46 percent. The poll of 1,003 registered Iowa voters was conducted between June 23-27 and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Turek leads among women with a college degree (65 percent), independents (59 percent), urban voters (59 percent), and young voters under 30 (55 percent), according to the poll. It found Hinson with support from White evangelical Christians (67 percent), men 45 and older (55 percent), veterans (52 percent), and men without a college degree (52 percent).
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Turek has the backing of 96 percent of the party, while 88 percent of Republicans back Hinson.
In terms of favorability, Hinson’s net favorability is—7 points, while Turek has a net positive rating of 18.
The latest poll from The New York Times/Siena shows Hinson leading by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll found Hinson with a 41 percent favorability rating and 34 percent unfavorable. Forty-six percent of voters view Turek favorably while 19 percent view him unfavorably. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from June 15-27 and has a margin of error of ±4.7 percentage points.
A Cygnal poll of 600 likely Iowa voters found Hinson ahead with 46 percent compared to Turek’s 44 percent. About 10 percent of voters were undecided. The poll was conducted between June 16-19 and has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
Prediction market Kalshi puts Hinson’s odds at winning the seat at 59 percent and Turek’s at 41 percent, as of Wednesday. Polymarket puts Hinson at 57 percent to Turek’s 44 percent, as of Wednesday.
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Fundraising in the Race
Hinson has outraised Turek in the race, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings reviewed by Newsweek.
The Republican has raised over $10.2 million in the race. She has about $6.75 million cash on hand as of the latest FEC closing date of June 30.
Turek has raised more than $6.27 million and has roughly $2.36 million cash on hand.
With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the race remains highly competitive and expensive, setting the stage for an intense final stretch as both parties battle for an open Senate seat in a state that has trended Republican in recent election cycles.
What To Watch For Next
With the race expected to remain one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country, both campaigns are likely to intensify efforts to win over independent voters in the months ahead. Upcoming polling, fundraising totals and candidate debates will offer key indicators of whether Democrats can make gains in Iowa or if Republicans can maintain their advantage in the state.
Hagle noted that there's still a lot up in the air with the race, adding, "We usually say that campaigns begin in earnest after Labor Day."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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