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By Anna Commander
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Former Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a sizable early lead over two of the most closely watched potential Democratic contenders for 2028, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll. The survey of likely voters found Harris with 37 percent support, well ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 14 percent and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9 percent.
Harris’ number also marks an improvement from May, when she registered 34 percent support with the pollster, suggesting that her position at the top of the early Democratic field has strengthened rather than weakened. The poll comes as other national surveys show mixed frontrunners.
Early polls have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge. Even with the election still years away, polling offers insight into potential candidate viability, voter sentiment and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.
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Harris told the Reverend Al Sharpton earlier this year that she is "thinking about it," when asked if she's considering a 2028 run.
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What To Know
The biggest challenge to Harris’ lead appears to be the sheer distance between her and the rest of the field. Newsom is currently her closest rival, but he trails Harris by 23 percentage points. Ocasio-Cortez, meanwhile, has slipped from 11 percent in May to 9 percent, moving her into a tie for fourth place with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg sits between Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent.
The numbers indicate that, at least for now, Harris has established a clear advantage among the voters Rasmussen identified as likely Democratic primary voters.
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek via email on Monday, "It is interesting that AOC has fallen, given the rising star of democratic socialism in Democratic primaries. Maybe there is some buyer’s remorse that’s being reflected in that poll. It’s still very early, and my hunch remains that Kamala Harris’s support is soft (although she has a core of staunch supporters).
"I would expect to see some more formal or more serious declarations of interest after the mid-terms. We’ll have a better sense of the depth of the reaction against Trump since 2025, and whether the left wing of the Democratic Party can win general elections."
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Harris’ strongest advantage comes from several important Democratic constituencies. The poll finds that Black voters are particularly likely to participate in the Democratic primary, while Harris draws her strongest support from Black voters and other minority voters. She also performs particularly well among younger Democratic primary voters: 53 percent of those under 40 who are likely Democratic primary voters say they favor Harris. By comparison, her support falls sharply among voters 65 and older, where Mark Kelly is the stronger preference. That age divide could become significant if the Democratic field changes substantially before voting begins.
At the same time, the poll should not be interpreted as proof that Harris is on track to win the 2028 Democratic nomination, as no candidate has formally announced their intentions to run.
The survey shows that all other potential candidates received single digits, including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker. The poll shows that 2 percent would vote for another candidate, while 7 percent are not sure.
The survey was conducted from August 2 to August 4, 2026, and questioned 504 voters who said they were more likely to participate in the Democratic presidential primary. The poll's margin of error is 3 percent.
For now, it appears that Harris has the strongest early position among the candidates tested, while Newsom remains the closest challenger and Ocasio-Cortez has lost some ground. Whether Harris' lead survives the scrutiny of a presidential campaign is a much bigger question, but if the Democratic primary were held today, this poll suggests Harris would enter the contest with a substantial advantage over both Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez.
What Other Polls Show
A McLaughlin & Associates poll taken last month shows Harris with 28 percent, Newsom with 17 percent, Ocasio-Cortez with 10 percent and Buttigieg with 8 percent. The survey shows that 14 percent were undecided.
The poll was taken from July 15 to July 21, 2026, among 472 respondents.
An Emerson College Poll last month showed Buttigieg with 19 percent and Newsom with 17 percent. Ossoff had 13 percent, Ocasio-Cortez had 13 percent, Harris had 8 percent, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear had 7 percent, Shapiro landed 5 percent and Pritzker had 3 percent. Representative Ro Khanna landed 2 percent, 3 percent would pick someone else, and 13 percent were undecided.
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The poll was conducted from July 19 to July 20, 2026, among 574 respondents and had a margin of error of 4 percent.
The Rasmussen and the Emerson College polls paint markedly different pictures of the Democratic field, largely because of Harris's standing. Rasmussen found the former vice president commanding 37 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, while an Emerson College poll conducted two weeks earlier measured Harris at 8 percent. Yet support for several other potential contenders, including Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Josh Shapiro, was broadly similar across both surveys, suggesting methodological differences rather than a dramatic shift in the race may explain much of the gap.
What's Next
While no major 2028 candidates have formally declared, presidential hopefuls typically begin testing runs, building donor networks and visiting early-voting states shortly after the midterms. Formal campaign announcements are expected throughout 2027, ahead of the first primary contests in early 2028.
Key dates:
- November 2026: Midterm elections.
- Late 2026-Early 2027: Potential candidates begin organizing campaigns.
- Throughout 2027: Formal presidential campaign announcements.
- Early 2028: Primary elections begin.
- November 7, 2028: Presidential Election Day
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas
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