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By Monica Sager
Live News Reporter
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If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, there is a chance that Democrats will also have control of both chambers of Congress, creating the best scenario for the nominee to get policies through, a strategist told Newsweek.
Election projections throughout the country give Democrats a chance to maintain control of the Senate, despite a challenging map, and win the House back from Republicans. Concerns about President Joe Biden hurting down ballot races was one of the reasons he withdrew from the election in July and Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee. Projections show Democrats could take both chambers of Congress, and if Harris wins the White House, she will have an advantage that Biden doesn't currently have.
When Biden took office, Democrats had control of the House and the Senate, but lost control of the House during the 2022 midterms. If Democrats control both chambers and Harris wins, the party will have an advantage of controlling the presidency and Congress, giving Harris may have an easier time fulfilling campaign promises.
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"Typically, a president's biggest opportunity to pass their legislative agenda is in their first two years in office," Michael Gordon, a principal at Group Gordon, told Newsweek. "It's very hard for the minority party in either house to move legislation—so if Harris wins and the Democrats take control of both chambers, then she'll be able to pass many of her legislative packages."
House Projections
There are currently 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the House, and every seat is up for election. Of note, not every seat is up for reelection because there are open seats.
The Cook Political Report House race ratings looked at the competitiveness of all 435 House elections in 2024. There are 174 races that are deemed as "solid Democrat," and 192 are considered "solid Republican," according to the most recent ratings from September 6.
If the Cook Political Report's ratings are accurate, Democrats are likely to win 203 seats. Republicans will likely win 208. That leaves control of the House potentially dependent on the 24 toss-up races, with 13 races involving incumbent Republicans and 9 involving incumbent Democrats. There are two open seats in Michigan that were previously held by Democrats.
To take control of the House, Democrats would need to win 15 of those toss-up races and Republicans would need to win 10.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, considers control of the House a 50-50 proposition and noted in September that it remains "highly competitive." Splitting the open seats evenly, Republicans keep control, but Sabato said he predicts Democrats will do better than an even split.
"We continue to not see a favorite in the House; the House probably will go the way of the presidential race, but not certainly," Kondik said. "One small positive development for Democrats is that as Kamala Harris has taken what appears to be a modest national polling lead, Democrats have done the same in the House generic ballot polling."
Senate
Democrats have the majority in the Senate 51-49 because of the four independents who caucus with them. Cook Political Report projects that the margin of control for Democrats will hold with the new election.
Gordon noted that even though Democrats are projected to have control of the Senate, they don't have the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. So, Harris would still need to work with Republicans to get votes on key issues.
"Controlling both Houses of Congress does not mean she'll get everything. The bigger issue is that if the Republicans control even one chamber, much less will happen," Gordon said.
Correction 10/2/24 4:40 p.m. ET: This article and headline have been updated to correct the timeline of Congressional majorities.
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