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By Jenni Fink
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Governor Kathy Hochul enters the 2026 general election as the favorite to win another term, but recent polling suggests Republicans believe they have their best opportunity in years to make New York's governor's race competitive.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has sought to capitalize on voter frustration over affordability, taxes, public safety and the state's overall direction.
While New York remains one of the country's most Democratic states, Hochul's relatively narrow 2022 victory over Republican Lee Zeldin demonstrated that statewide elections can become more competitive under the right political conditions.
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Whether Blakeman can recreate that dynamic after the primary will depend on turnout, independents and whether he can expand his appeal beyond the Republican base. But, playing in Blakeman's favor is that Democrats have lost registered voters while Republicans have expanded their base.
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Hochul's Chances of Losing to Blakeman
At this stage, Hochul remains the clear favorite. Polls conducted this year have consistently shown the Democratic incumbent leading Blakeman by double digits. A Siena College survey conducted in the end of April found Hochul ahead 49 percent to 33 percent, an increase from a March Siena poll that had Hochul winning by 13 points.
An Echelon Insights poll from the end of March showed similar margins, with Hochul taking 55 percent of the vote, compared to Blakeman's 40 percent.
“New Yorkers know that Governor Kathy Hochul fights for them and their families, from putting money back in their pockets through inflation refund checks, to lowering the cost of car insurance, to universal child care – and every day they watch Bruce Blakeman enable Donald Trump’s attacks on New York and let his unaccountable ICE agents trample on their rights,” Hochul Campaign Spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki told Newsweek.
Polymarket, a prediction market website, gives Democrats an 88 percent chance to win the election, compared with 12 percent. Kalshi gives Democrats a similar advantage, with 90 percent odds, compared to Republicans' 8 percent. In both prediction markets, the gap has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the year.
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Still, Democrats are unlikely to take comfort solely from those numbers. Hochul won reelection in 2022 by just over six percentage points—a surprisingly close margin. In August 2022, the RealClearPolitics polling average had Hochul up by 19 points. Hochul's up now in the RealClearPolitics average by 16.5 points.
Hochul, who took over after former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021, has seen her approval ratings fluctuate during her tenure, and surveys consistently show New Yorkers expressing concerns about affordability, housing costs, taxes and economic pressures.
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“On seven issues–cost of living, housing, crime, healthcare, infrastructure, environment, and education–a majority or plurality of Republicans and independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction. A majority of Democrats think the state is on the right track on five issues, but even Democrats agree with Republicans and independents that the state is headed in the wrong direction on housing and cost of living,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement in May.
Hochul's favorability ratings have hovered near 50 percent or gone underwater. A Siena College poll from end of April found Hochul's approval rating dropped eight points, dropping to the lowest level in the last year.
“Is it the late state budget? Is it something the Governor has said or done? Hard to say, but either way, Hochul heads into a campaign–with an election 26 weeks from today–with her lowest favorability and job approval ratings in about a year,” Greenberg said.
“Both Hochul’s favorability and approval ratings fell the most in the last month with independents, men and voters from New York City. While she continues to be in positive territory on both measures in New York City, she has fallen even deeper underwater with independents."
However, Hochul still has a significant advantage just because of the makeup of New York state. Unlike swing-state governors, Hochul benefits from a massive Democratic enrollment advantage. Even if she underperforms among independents, she can still win comfortably by maintaining strong support among registered Democrats and running up large margins in New York City.
Bruce Blakeman's Advantages
Blakeman would enter the general election with several advantages that could help him narrow the gap. The first is the issue of affordability. Polling consistently shows New Yorkers concerned about the cost of living, taxes, housing expenses and utility bills. Blakeman has made economic frustration a centerpiece of his campaign, arguing that Democratic leadership has made New York increasingly unaffordable for middle-class families.
"There's reasons why hundreds of thousands of people have left the state and gone to South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida because they've gone to places where their families can live a better life, a more affordable life," Blakeman previously told Newsweek.
Second, he could point to recent Republican gains across New York. While Democrats continue to dominate statewide races, Republicans have improved their performance on Long Island and in parts of the Hudson Valley. Those regions were critical to Zeldin's stronger-than-expected showing in 2022.
A third advantage is voter dissatisfaction with the status quo. Even voters who do not strongly support Republican policies may be receptive to a message focused on change if they believe New York is headed in the wrong direction economically. Or, it's possible that frustrated Democrats don't turn out for Hochul, giving Blakeman an advantage with voter turnout.
Republicans also believe President Donald Trump's support could help energize core GOP voters, particularly outside New York City. Trump has publicly endorsed Blakeman and remains influential among Republican primary voters.
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“Bruce is MAGA all the way, and has been with me from the very beginning. As Nassau County Executive, he is working tirelessly with the Brave Heroes of ICE, Border Patrol, and Law Enforcement to Keep Our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Safeguard our Community, and Ensure LAW AND ORDER,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
However, Blakeman would face substantial challenges.
He would have to introduce himself to millions of voters outside Nassau County, persuade independents without alienating conservatives, and overcome the state's large Democratic registration advantage. He must also avoid being defined solely through national partisan politics in a state where Democratic candidates continue to perform strongly.
When Was the Last Time a Republican Won New York Governor
The last Republican elected governor of New York was George Pataki, who won a third term in 2002.
Pataki first shocked political observers in 1994 when he defeated Democratic Governor Mario Cuomo. He then won reelection in 1998 and again in 2002, serving until the end of 2006. No Republican has won the governorship since.
Pataki remains the last Republican to win any statewide election in New York. Since his final victory, Democrats have maintained control of the governor's mansion and most other statewide offices.
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Several Republicans have come close. Former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino lost to Andrew Cuomo in 2014 by about 14 points. Zeldin performed considerably better in 2022, losing to Hochul by roughly six points. His campaign demonstrated that Republicans can remain competitive under favorable circumstances, particularly when public safety and economic issues become major voter concerns.
Yet New York's overall electoral environment remains challenging for Republicans. Democratic presidential candidates regularly carry the state by large margins, and Democratic candidates continue to dominate statewide races despite periodic Republican gains at the local level.
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How Republican, Democrat Voters in New York Have Changed
The most important long-term challenge facing Republicans is New York's voter registration landscape.
Democrats maintain a registration advantage of more than two-to-one over Republicans statewide. Data reviewed by Newsweek show over 6 million active registered Democrat voters as of the beginning of the year. Republicans statewide have 2.8 million active registered voters.
However, when it comes to shifts in the landscape, Republicans are seeing positive signs. Since Hochul's election in 2022, Republicans have seen a 5.1 percent increase to the amount of active registered voters they have. Democrats, however, have seen a 0.32 percent decrease across the same period.
Independent and unaffiliated voters now play an increasingly important role. While Republicans remain at a registration disadvantage, their candidates can become competitive when they win independents by large margins and attract crossover support from moderate Democrats.
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The 2022 governor's race illustrated this dynamic. Zeldin performed strongly among suburban voters and reduced Democratic margins in areas that had previously been less competitive. Although he ultimately lost, the race demonstrated how Republicans can narrow statewide gaps even in a heavily Democratic state.
For Hochul, the challenge will be maintaining the coalition that has kept Democrats dominant: strong support in New York City, competitive showings in the suburbs and steady backing from minority voters, union households and younger voters.
For Blakeman, success would depend on assembling a different coalition—one that maximizes Republican turnout, appeals to independents on economic issues and persuades enough moderates that change is preferable to continuity.
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