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By Anna Commander
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A new survey from Public Policy Polling, commissioned by the Texas Justice Fund, shows that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is three points ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary race for Senate.
The Texas GOP Senate primary advanced to a runoff after neither Cornyn nor Paxton won a majority, setting up a nationally watched intraparty contest that could signal the Republican Party’s direction in a critical Sun Belt state and determine who faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email on Wednesday for comment.
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Why It Matters
The 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary became a proxy fight over the GOP’s ideological future. Texas remains a top-tier battleground for Senate control, and the runoff’s dynamics—especially a possible endorsement from President Donald Trump—could reshape fundraising and turnout.
What To Know
According to the poll, Paxton leads Cornyn 45 percent to 42 percent and 13 percent are undecided. The poll surveyed 565 likely runoff voters from March 5 to March 6, 2026, and has a 4.1 percent margin of error.
The poll also shows that Cornyn leads Paxton with voters who disapprove of President Trump 73 to 16 percent. Paxton leads Cornyn 49 to 37 percent with people who approve of the president, the poll shows.
The Texas Justice Fund, is described as "a 501(c)(4) organization focused on protecting voting rights, fair elections,
and access to the ballot," the poll notes.
A poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) also shows Paxton leading Cornyn 49 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The poll surveyed 781 likely Republican primary voters from March 7 to March 8 with a 3.9 percent margin of error.
Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn in the runoff race, according to The Atlantic, citing people familiar with the matter. The magazine also said its sources noted that Trump is prone to last-minute changes.
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What People Are Saying
Public Policy Polling on X on Wednesday: "Voters President Trump would probably consider RINOs fueled Cornyn’s first place finish last week. Paxton +12 with Trump approvers, Cornyn +57 with Trump disapprovers."
Paxton on X on Tuesday: "John Cornyn is a coward. He is SILENT about abolishing the filibuster and actually fighting to pass the Save America Act. He's an unserious establishment politician who doesn't care supporting the President, election integrity, or stopping child mutilation surgery."
Cornyn on X on Wednesday: "I don’t hate anyone. I just can’t let a corrupt person like @KenPaxtonTX jeopardize a safe Republican Senate seat, be an anchor on down ballot races, divert resources from other Senate pickup opportunities, and jeopardize @realDonaldTrump agenda in his last two years of his current term."
What Happens Next
The runoff Senate election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
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