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By Sam Stevenson

Associate News Editor

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Support for TV star Spencer Pratt shows little recent movement in the Los Angeles mayoral race ahead of the June primary, with Democratic incumbent Karen Bass still the clear favorite to win in both polling and prediction markets.

However, there is some good news for Pratt, with his sister having had a change of heart regarding his candidacy after initially being critical of her sibling.

The contest remains a three-way race between Bass, Pratt and Democratic Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, though recent polling suggests Bass remains ahead as support consolidates, though her margin over rivals has not significantly widened

Key Points

• Prediction markets continue to show Bass firmly ahead, with Polymarket at roughly 71 percent and Kalshi at around 69 percent at the time of writing. Pratt’s odds have stabilized in the mid-20s.
• Recent polling still places Bass first, with Emerson showing her at 30 percent, ahead of Pratt at 22 percent and Raman at 19 percent.
• Undecided voters have dropped sharply since March, suggesting the race is consolidating rather than tightening.
• Internal and commissioned polling indicate Bass may be capped in the low-to-mid 20s but still leads a fragmented field.
• Pratt’s campaign remains centered on wildfire criticisms. His polling position has shown limited movement in recent data.

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The latest data suggests Bass’ advantage has held steady or strengthened in recent weeks, while Pratt’s position has shown fewer gains after an early surge, pointing to a more stable race heading into the final stretch before ballots are cast.

The top two candidates will advance to a November runoff if no candidate wins a majority.

Newsweek has contacted the leading mayoral campaigns for comment.

Why It Matters

The race has crystallized around Bass’ incumbency record and voter frustrations over homelessness, public safety and wildfire response, which have become defining campaign issues.

Pratt, who starred in MTV's The Hills and is a registered Republican running for mayor as an independent, has leaned heavily into attacks over the 2025 Palisades Fire and the ongoing Sandy Fire, making disaster management a central dividing line in the contest.

Pratt's Sister Weighs In On Campaign

The latest developments come as Pratt’s sister, Stephanie Pratt, again weighed in on his mayoral campaign—this time striking a more supportive tone.

"I admit I was the first person to tell people that they were idiots if they voted for my brother," she told Vanity Fair in an email interview on May 27. "Wow, was I wrong. He has spent every day since the fires, finding the facts, the mistakes, the negligence and uncovering the truth that they never wanted us to know."

Her remarks reflect the unusual mix of celebrity attention and serious policy debate that has defined the race, particularly as wildfire response continues to dominate the campaign.

What The Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets are trading platforms where prices, expressed as percentage chances, reflect the crowd’s estimate of an outcome’s likelihood, often aggregating information faster than polls but vulnerable to bias, low liquidity and speculative swings.

Bass' position remains strong across markets, with little movement in recent days, reinforcing her status as the clear front-runner.

At the time of writing, on Polymarket, Bass was trading at roughly 71 percent, compared with roughly 25 percent for Pratt and about 6 percent for City Councilmember Raman.

Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, showed a similar hierarchy, with Bass priced at 69 percent, Pratt at 27 percent, and Raman at 6 percent.

These markets reflect a broad consensus: Bass is favored to win or at least reach the November runoff, while Pratt is now clearly priced as her main challenger rather than a fringe candidate.

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes 66% · No 35%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

What The Polls Show

The most recent public data shows a Bass-led race that has begun to stabilize as the number of undecided voters shrinks.

Overall trend: Bass leads across most public polls, but the race behind her remains tightly clustered, with Pratt and Raman competing for a runoff spot.

Emerson College poll (May 2026):

• Bass: 30 percent
• Pratt: 22 percent
• Raman: 19 percent
• Undecided: 16 percent

Tavern Research poll (May 2026)

• Bass: 22 percent
• Pratt: 18 percent
• Raman: 16 percent
• Undecided: 29 percent (drops from 46 percent after leaners prompt)

Earlier benchmarking (March polling snapshot across Emerson, Berkeley IGS and UCLA Luskin):

• Bass ranged between 19 percent and 25 percent
• Pratt and Raman both clustered in the low-to-mid teens
• Undecided voters reached as high as roughly 40–51 percent

Poll average (four surveys since early March):

• Bass: 23 percent
• Pratt: 13 percent
• Raman: 13 percent

Key takeaways:

• Bass consistently leads but remains below a majority threshold, pointing toward a likely runoff
• Pratt has emerged as the clear second-place contender in recent polling, though his margin over Raman remains narrow
• Raman remains competitive and is within striking distance for a top-two finish
• Undecided voters have fallen sharply from around 40–50 percent in March to the mid-teens or lower in May polls
• Internal and commissioned polling suggests Bass may be capped in the low-to-mid 20s, despite leading the field

Full Poll Details

An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted May 9–10 among 1,000 likely primary voters (with a plus or minus 3 percent margin of error, and a Los Angeles subsample of 350 likely voters at plus or minus 5.2 percent) found Bass at 30 percent, Pratt at 22 percent, and Raman at 19 percent.

Support has risen across the top three candidates since March, when Bass was at 20 percent, Pratt 10 percent and Raman 9 percent, indicating that undecided voters are now breaking decisively.

That shift is critical: the same Emerson data set shows undecided voters falling from 51 percent in March to just 16 percent in May, a rapid consolidation of the electorate.

Earlier polling underscores how fluid the race has been. A UCLA Luskin survey conducted March 15–29 among 813 likely voters, with a plus or minus 4 percent margin of error, found Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 11 percent, Raman at 9 percent, with 40 percent still undecided.

Similarly, a UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll conducted March 9–15 among 840 likely voters showed Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 14 percent and Raman at 17 percent, with 26 percent undecided, reinforcing the fragmented early landscape.

A more recent Tavern Research poll commissioned by Growth Machine Fund and Abundance Network, a civic group focused on pro‑growth policy, fielded May 1–4 using text-to-web methodology among 531 likely voters, with a 6.1 percent margin of error, put Bass at 22 percent, with Pratt at 18 percent and Raman at 16 percent.

That pollster argued Bass was only narrowly behind her challengers in some configurations and described the race as unusually weak for an incumbent with near-universal name recognition.

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Fire Politics And Campaign Attacks

Wildfires have become one of the most emotionally charged issues shaping voter perceptions.

Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, has repeatedly attacked Bass’ leadership, framing the disaster as a failure of preparedness and response.

In one X post during the current Sandy Fire, he wrote: "While Karen Bass is worried about getting meth-heads new grills, the LAFD has 3 dozen LESS firefighters than we had when the Palisades Fire hit."

He has also argued that decisions around water access and firefighting strategy worsened the earlier blaze, drawing contrasts with the current fire response.

Bass has defended her record and, following the 2025 Palisades Fire, removed Fire Chief Kristin Crowley, a decision she said was in the interests of public safety.

In terms of the Sandy Fire, Bass said in a statement that officials do "not expect the wildfire to reach the City of Los Angeles," they were "closely monitor[ing] the situation," and that LAFD had deployed "strike teams, a hand crew, and helicopters" to support Ventura County crews.

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