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By Joe Edwards
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New federal projections represent another troubling outlook for Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, as states that depend on the Colorado River work to renegotiate long‑term management plans.
Why It Matters
According to the National Agricultural Law Center, the Colorado River system—which includes the major reservoirs Lake Mead and Lake Powell—irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland and supplies water to some 40 million people across the Western U.S.
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What To Know
According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s (USBR) latest projections, issued Friday, Lake Mead’s elevation is expected to be 1,036.5 feet at the end of November 2027.
Past USBR data shows that this would be lower than any end-of-month elevation at the reservoir recorded in 2022—when the lake was battling critically low water levels following years of drought.
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The update also comes after recent data indicated that poor snowpack and dry soil are contributing to "well below normal" water supply forecasts along the Colorado River.
Federal officials this week outlined several possible options for managing the river’s resources as deadlines for the states that depend upon it to negotiate new agreements approaches.
Among the options proposed were a basic coordination plan—an approach that could be implemented without requiring Basin water users to agree on shortage‑sharing, conservation storage, or other voluntary arrangements—and an alternative that draws on ideas from Basin Tribes, federal agencies, and other stakeholders to protect critical infrastructure and support environmental, hydropower, and recreational needs by managing storage between Lakes Powell and Mead.
What People Are Saying
Peter Soeth, USBR deputy chief of public affairs, told Newsweek: "Reclamation is closely monitoring hydrologic conditions and coordinating with stakeholders. The basin’s continued poor hydrologic outlook underscores the need for collaboration as we develop new operating guidelines for the Colorado River system. Urgent, collective action is essential—we must move forward together, without further delay."
Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center, told Newsweek in December: "Currently, the water-in-storage situation for the Colorado River system is not good.
“[There is] less in storage than last year, and current snow conditions are not good. Even if early 2026 snowpack is robust, the system will remain highly stressed. The region is faced with difficult choices regarding Colorado River water deliveries and dam operations, including those related hydropower generation.
"The debates regarding river management reflect these physical realities. There are many trade-offs to consider. We cannot keep drawing from savings (system storage) when the system is not making sufficient deposits of water. We must work with what nature is providing."
What Happens Next
As of Wednesday, official data shows that Lake Mead is just 33 percent full, with around 8.7 million acre-feet of water in storage—roughly 53 percent of the average level for the date.
Multiple agreements and management plans that regulate how the Colorado River’s facilities are operated are set to expire at the end of 2026.
Update 1/22/26, 12:10 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from USBR's Peter Soeth.
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