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By Joe Edwards
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Federal projections indicate that Lake Mead's decline may be accelerating, with a new study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecasting that the nation's largest reservoir could plunge to 1,015.77 feet above sea level by July 2027.
The USBR's "most probable" 24-month study, issued earlier this week, showed a sharper decline than was forecast in last month's iteration of the report, which projected that the reservoir would sit at 1,020.76 feet in July of next year.
The new data comes as the Colorado River network—which delivers water to about 40 million residents throughout the Western U.S. and sustains over 5 million acres of agriculture—continues to face enduring long-term drought conditions, worsening water and electricity worries at some of the country's most vital reservoirs.
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"Recent projections highlight the ongoing vulnerability of the Colorado River system and emphasize the urgent need to develop new guidelines and establish updated procedures," a USBR spokesperson told Newsweek this week, in reference to the latest data.
As of Tuesday, Lake Mead was 29 percent full, with 7,454,257 acre-feet of water in storage, a level representing 47 percent of average for the date, according to USBR data.
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What the Projections Indicate
The USBR's 24-month study reports present hydrological descriptions and projected operations for the Colorado River system reservoirs for the next two years. The latest projections also indicated that Lake Mead could drop to 1,011.74 feet by the end of May 2028.
According to the agency, its 24-month studies "are only projections and are subject to change as the year progresses and actual hydrology, operations and forecasts diverge from those used to produce specific 24-Month Study projections."
Ongoing worries surrounding power generation continue to be emphasized in light of the unfavorable projections for the Colorado River system.
USBR said in a social media statement earlier this week that Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, could drop to elevations that potentially jeopardize hydropower.
"The study continues to rely on operational assumptions using the soon-expiring operating guidelines, and as a result, projects Lake Powell reaching minimum power pool in spring 2027," it said. "This outcome is not a reflection of recent drought response actions, but rather a clear reminder that the Colorado River remains vulnerable and that updated operational tools are essential for long-term stability."
Scientists have also warned that the Colorado River system is facing a possible "system crash" in the coming years amid an imbalance between water supply and demand.
Which States Rely on the River?
The states that rely on the river—Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming in the Upper Basin and Arizona, California and Nevada in the Lower Basin—have been attempting to negotiate updated water-sharing agreements as existing operating guidelines are due to expire this year. A unified consensus between them has not been achieved.
Previously released satellite images have also highlighted how much the water level in Lake Mead has fallen over a 25-year period, with the reservoir appearing noticeably smaller in 2024 imagery compared to 1999.
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The stark contrast was captured by Landsat 7, a joint mission of the United States Geological Survey and NASA.
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