Larry Elder Has Less Than Three Percent Chance of Becoming California Governor—Bookmakers

Bookmakers are increasingly confident California Governor Gavin Newsom will survive Tuesday's recall election challenge from Larry Elder, with betting companies putting him at 97.1 percent to stay on in the job.

According to European bookmakers, Elder has failed to capitalize on Californians' frustration over Newsom's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state.

In its latest odds, released on Tuesday, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power put Newsom as a solid favorite to see off the recall effort.

Some three out of four bets have been made in favor of Newsom and one person even put four figures down on the incumbent Democrat.

A Paddy Power spokesperson told Newsweek: "To date, 75 percent of the stakes have been on Newsom not to be recalled.

"And punters seem more confident by the second that he won't be perturbed by an Arnold Schwarzenegger-style unseating.

"In fact, just this morning we took a chunky four-figure bet on Newsom not to be recalled at 1-33, an implied a probability of 97.1 percent, meaning someone out there is feeling almost as confident as the man himself that he's going nowhere."

Paddy Power added its odds for Newsom to be successfully recalled on Tuesday stood at 9-1.

British bookmaker Betfair also firmly stands by Newsom and said its odds shifted more in favor of the incumbent after major Democratic figures sprung into action to help the governor.

A Betfair spokesperson said: "Gavin Newsom's position is continuing to strengthen and he is now 1-33 to not be recalled having been 1-8 on Monday.

"The California Governor was 4-1 at the start of the week to be successfully recalled but he is now 9-1 after President Joe Biden and the Democrats rallied behind their man."

Elder has not fared much better in recent polls, with Newsom enjoying an average poll lead of 16.6 percent, according to analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

Facing significant odds against him, conservative radio host Elder appeared to predict his own defeat, even before in-person voting got underway.

Visitors to Elder's official website were directed to an election fraud page that suggests "instances of undocumented ballots have been discovered," ahead of Tuesday's vote.

Another passage on the website reads: "Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in third-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as Governor."

This is despite the election not having concluded and the results of the recall still being unknown.

Newsweek has reached out to Elder's campaign for comment.

Larry Elder
Bookies are backing Newsom to comfortably win the recall election. Larry Elder attends the "Death Of A Nation" premiere at Regal Cinemas L.A. Live on July 31, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. Greg Doherty/Getty Images