Latest NFL Draft Odds - Six Players in the Running for First-Overall Pick

Bryce Young celebrating a touchdown pass
Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts after throwing a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter of the Allstate Sugar Bowl against the Kansas State Wildcats at Caesars Superdome on December 31, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Sean Gardner/Getty Images

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The 2023 NFL draft is scheduled to run from April 27 to April 29 with the first round on day one, the second and third rounds on day two, and the remaining four rounds on the final day.

While players finished crafting their on-field resumes well over a month ago, the odds to be the first-overall pick have shifted quite significantly over that span. The favorite, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, was still in plus-money the last time he took the field in the Sugar Bowl against Kansas State. Over the past eight weeks, his odds have moved to -150 at both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Not all oddsmakers are as sold on Young going first overall. The table below shows the current odds to be the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft at Caesars Sportsbook, which list Young at -125 and five other players at +650 or shorter.

NFL Draft 2023 Odds - First-Overall Pick

Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)-125
C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)+250
Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)+600
Will Anderson (LB, Alabama)+600
Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)+600
Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)+650
Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)+8000
Paris Johnson (OT, Ohio State)+10000
Peter Skoronski (OT, Northwestern)+10000
Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)+15000
Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)+15000
Jordan Addison (WR, USC)+25000
Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)+25000
Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)+25000
B.J. Ojulari (DE, LSU)+25000
Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)+25000
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)+25000
Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)+25000
Kayshon Boutte (WR, LSU)+25000
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)+25000
Jaren Hall (QB, BYU)+25000
Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)+25000
Ryan Hayes (OT, Michigan)+25000
Justin Flowe (LB, Oregon)+25000
Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)+25000
Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)+25000
Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)+25000
Malik Cunningham (QB, Louisville)+25000

The other contenders include three more quarterbacks - Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson, and Kentucky's Will Levis - plus arguably the two best defensive players in college football last season - Alabama linebacker Will Anderson and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Wilson.







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When this market first opened back in May 2022, Young was around +250 and he stayed in the +150 to +300 range over the next seven months. Only after his 321-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Wildcats in the Sugar Bowl did he become the odds-on favorite.

Quarterbacks dominate the no. 1 pick history

Of the 89 first-overall picks in the history of the NFL draft, only 34 have been quarterbacks. Running back is the next position on the list at 23, but the last running back to go first overall was Ki-Jana Carter to the Cincinnati Bengals back in 1995.

Recent history is much more skewed towards QBs, with the NFL becoming increasingly pass-heavy over the past two decades.

Since the year 2000, sixteen of the 21 first-overall picks have been quarterbacks, including four of the past five. Georgia defensive end Travon Walker put a stop to a run of four straight QB's just last season, going first-overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had taken QB Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick a year prior.

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Which NFL team has the #1 pick in 2023?

The potential for a non-QB to go first overall for the second straight season is lended credence by the current draft order. As things stand, the 2023 first-overall pick belongs to the Chicago Bears, who are building around 23-year-old quarterback Justin Fields, the 11th pick in the 2021 draft.

Fields has a ways to go as a passer, but has shown to have unparalleled dual-threat potential. The Ohio State product broke the single-game rushing record for QB's last season (178) and put up the second-most rushing yards in a season by a pivot. It would be a surprise if the Bears kept the No. 1 pick and took a quarterback. The credible 2023 mock drafts that have Chicago staying at No. 1 show the Bears selecting either Jalen Carter (Daniel Jeremiah, Mel Kiper) or Will Anderson (Ryan Wilson, Walter Football).

The next teams in the draft order are not as set at the QB position.

2023 NFL Draft Order - Top Ten

1Chicago Bears
2Houston Texans
3Arizona Cardinals
4Indianapolis Colts
5Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos)
6Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams)
7Las Vegas Raiders
8Atlanta Falcons
9Carolina Panthers
10Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints)

The Texans (Davis Mills), Colts (Matt Ryan), and Seahawks (Geno Smith) all have middling or subpar veterans at the helm and will be in the market for a quarterback. The Bears could trade down as far as No. 6 and be fairly confident that multiple of the top-five picks will be spent on QBs.

Mock drafts split between Young, Stroud, Richardson

The mock drafts that list the Bears trading out of the No. 1 spot do not universally have Young going first overall. CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli has the Texans trading up for Stroud.'s Chris Trapasso shows the Colts using the top pick on Richardson. While The Athletic and ESPN's Jordan Reid have the Colts and Texans, respectively, trading up for Young.

The 2023 NFL draft takes place in Kansas City, Missouri. The first round will air at 8 p.m. EST on Thursday, April 27, on the NFL Network.

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