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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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The Week 10 Sunday Night Football game should be a good one, with the Detroit Lions traveling to Houston to take on the Texans.
The Lions have been the best team in the NFC all year, and one could make the argument that they have been the best team in the entire NFL, even with the Chiefs having an undefeated record.
The Texans have faltered somewhat recently, as their offense was dealt two huge blows when WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs went down. Diggs is unfortunately out for the year with a torn ACL, but the Texans could have Collins back tonight after activating him from injured reserve on Saturday.
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Before kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, check out the best player prop picks for Lions vs. Texans.
Tank Dell o64.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
It had been somewhat of a lost season for Dell the first two months of the year, but he seemed to snap out of that last week in a good game against the Jets.
Despite being essentially the only receiving option for the Texans against a good Jets pass defense, Dell went off for 126 yards on nine targets and six receptions. It was, by far, the most yards he has had in a game this season.
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Even with Collins (hamstring) possibly back for this game, the Texans will still be missing Stefon Diggs, who is out for the year. So, the guess is we are going to see another big game from Dell against the Lions' soft passing defense.
This was the case last season as well, as the Lions have a pass funnel type of defense where they can be had through the air, but are very stout on the ground.
The Lions have allowed the most passing yards to WRs in the entire NFL, and by a decent margin too. They have allowed 209 yards per game specifically to WRs, with the next-closest team down at 196.4.
Looking at their recent games, they have allowed some monster performances to WRs:
- Jayden Reed, Week 9: 113 receiving yards
- Calvin Ridley, Week 8: 143 receiving yards
- CeeDee Lamb, Week 6: 89 receiving yards
- D.K. Metcalf, Week 4: 104 receiving yards
- Chris Godwin, Week 2: 117 receiving yards
- Cooper Kupp, Week 1: 110 receiving yards
The Lions had a bye in Week 5, so it has been six of eight games where they have been lit up by an opposing team's WR, which leads us to Dell on Sunday Night Football.
Tank Dell over 64.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
Joe Mixon u82.5 Rush. Yards (-114) FanDuel
This one is obviously correlated with the Dell over, but fading Mixon is the way to go.
On the surface, it is a scary proposition, as Mixon has been great for the Texans this year, but it is tough to see him continuing to put up the same level of production he has so far this season.
So far, Mixon has rushed for 100 or more yards in every game he has played in, taking out the one game he left due to injury. That said, it has been a soft stretch of run defenses, and the Lions are much better at stopping the run.
Here are the teams Mixon has played this year and how their rush defense ranks:
- Indianapolis Colts (twice): Allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game
- New England Patriots: Allowing the second-most rushing yards per game
- Green Bay Packers: 15th-ranked rushing DVOA, allowing ninth-highest yards per carry
- New York Jets: 24th-ranked rushing DVOA, allowing 12th-most rushing yards per game
So, the only top-half rushing defense the Texans have faced is the Packers, and even Green Bay has a relatively soft rushing defense that has been taken advantage of this season.
Now, Houston is facing a Lions team that has the third-best rushing defense DVOA and is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game.
This is also a game in which the Lions project to be winning throughout, so the Texans are going to need to pass more to keep up, which leads us to taking the under on this high rushing total for Mixon.
Joe Mixon under 82.5 rushing yards (-114): 1 Unit
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