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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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With two months to go until Americans vote in the 2026 midterm elections, new polling shows President Donald Trump facing a political landscape that has deteriorated significantly since the start of his second term.
The data comes from Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters.
A Newsweek analysis compares Trump's approval rating on August 31, 2026, with where it stood when he returned to office on January 20, 2025, with net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.
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Nationally, Trump stands at 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval, leaving him with a net approval rating of minus 24.
State-level data paints a similar picture, with the president maintaining his strongest support in Republican territory while remaining underwater across every major battleground state.
Key Points
- Trump is underwater in every major battleground state two months before the November 3 midterm elections.
- Tennessee and Utah have fallen to net-even territory, while Indiana has slipped below water.
- Several Republican-leaning states have seen larger declines than many Democratic strongholds since January 2025.
- Younger voters, independents and postgraduates remain among Trump's weakest demographic groups.
Use the map below to explore where Trump's approval rating stands in each state two months before the midterm elections.
Deep Red States Still Back Trump
Trump's strongest ratings remain concentrated in the Republican heartland.
Wyoming remains his best-performing state, with a net approval rating of +22. North Dakota and West Virginia follow at +15, while Alabama stands at +8. Arkansas and South Dakota are also positive at +8.
Support remains strongest in states that overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2024, but the margins are considerably smaller than when he began his second term.
Wyoming opened Trump's presidency at +47 net approval and now stands at +22. North Dakota has fallen from +34 to +15. West Virginia has declined from +35 to +15.
Kentucky illustrates how much the political map has shifted. It began Trump's second term at +23 net approval and now sits at -7.
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative
Trump's weakest ratings remain concentrated in Democratic-leaning states.
Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating at -60, followed by Vermont at -52 and Maryland at -51. Massachusetts stands at -47, while California is at -43.
Connecticut and Washington both register -41, while New York sits at -40.
In these states, opposition has remained deeply entrenched throughout Trump's second term.
What the Demographic Data Shows
The national demographic breakdown helps explain the state-level trends.
Younger voters remain Trump's weakest group. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 22 percent approve of his job performance while 70 percent disapprove.
Among voters aged 35 to 49, approval stands at 28 percent and disapproval at 63 percent.
Independents also remain firmly negative, with 29 percent approving and 62 percent disapproving. Women disapprove by a 64-to-30 margin, while men are somewhat more divided at 52 percent disapprove to 41 percent approve.
Education remains another major fault line.
Among postgraduates, approval stands at 23 percent compared with 72 percent disapproval.
Among non-college graduates, the split narrows to 39 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove.
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Every Major Swing State Is Underwater
The battleground map remains the most challenging part of the picture for Republicans as midterms loom.
Trump is now underwater in every major swing state:
- Arizona: -14
- Florida: -10
- Georgia: -23
- Nevada: -23
- North Carolina: -16
- Ohio: -17
- Pennsylvania: -18
- Wisconsin: -18
Several of those states were either positive or evenly divided when Trump took office.
Florida has moved from +9 to -10. Ohio has fallen from +8 to -17. Nevada has shifted from 0 to -23, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -16.
Those declines come as both parties intensify their efforts ahead of a midterm election that could determine control of Congress.
Where Approval Has Fallen the Most
Every state in the tracker shows a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.
Some of the sharpest declines have come in states where Trump initially enjoyed strong support.
Among the biggest drops:
- Kentucky: +23 to -7 (down 30 points)
- Oklahoma: +31 to +4 (down 27 points)
- Wyoming: +47 to +22 (down 25 points)
- Ohio: +8 to -17 (down 25 points)
- Iowa: +6 to -18 (down 24 points)
- Texas: +6 to -17 (down 23 points)
- Nevada: 0 to -23 (down 23 points)
- Florida: +9 to -10 (down 19 points)
The trend is notable because many of the largest declines are occurring in Republican-leaning states rather than places where Trump already faced entrenched opposition.
The Middle of the Map Has Tightened
Several states now sit close to the divide between positive and negative territory.
Tennessee and Utah are exactly even at 0. Indiana and Nebraska stand at -2, while Kansas is narrowly positive at +2. Montana and Oklahoma are both at +4.
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That clustering suggests a map where small movements could quickly change the status of several states.
The broader partisan geography remains familiar. The margins, however, have narrowed considerably.
How the Numbers Compare With Previous Midterms
Trump's current standing is weaker than it was before the 2018 midterm elections.
At a comparable point before those elections, Civiqs polling showed Trump on 43 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, for a net rating of minus 10.
His current national net approval rating of minus 24 leaves him substantially worse off than he was heading into his first midterm election.
A Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker
Two months before the midterms, Trump's political map still resembles the one he began his second term with.
His strongest support remains concentrated in Republican states. His weakest numbers remain centered in Democratic territory.
What has changed is the size of the margins.
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At the start of his second term, Trump was comfortably above water across much of the Republican map and remained competitive in several battleground states.
Today, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, evenly divided or clearly negative.
The result is a map that retains its familiar partisan shape—but one that provides considerably less political cushion heading into November.
What the White House Says
The White House has continued to dismiss polling fluctuations, arguing that Trump's 2024 election victory remains the clearest measure of public support.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle has repeatedly highlighted what the administration describes as progress on jobs, inflation and housing affordability. In comments the White House has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, Ingle argued that "no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump."
Ingle added that Trump is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more" and said the administration believes "this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
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