10
Loading video...
By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
A revived political operation backed by multibillionaire Elon Musk could matter most in a relatively small group of battleground states where Senate races, competitive House districts and voter turnout trends converge, a Newsweek analysis has found.
Key Points
- Musk is reviving America PAC, the super PAC that spent more than $260 million during the 2024 election cycle, according to Axios.
- A Newsweek analysis identified Michigan, North Carolina, Texas, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as the states where a large Republican turnout operation could have the greatest impact.
- A second tier includes Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, California and New York, where competitive congressional races could make outside spending particularly influential.
Read More on Politics
Newsweek's map is an editorial impact index based on publicly available race ratings and turnout trends, not a forecast of where America PAC will spend money.
...
Musk is bringing back America PAC ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to help boost Republican turnout through field operations, digital advertising and direct mail, according to Axios.
"America PAC was an essential partner for our historic GOTV operation in 2024, and their return for 2026 is a huge boost for Republicans across the country," James Blair, President Donald Trump's senior political adviser, told Axios.
Musk's return to the midterm battlefield comes as Republicans fight to hold narrow congressional majorities, with control of Congress potentially hinging on a handful of battleground states at a time when Trump's approval ratings, particularly on the economy and the Iran war, have created a more challenging political environment for the GOP.
"The president's political team and the rest of the GOP apparatus have built a top-notch operation that will put Republicans in a strong position to buck history and retain control of Congress this fall, and we're excited to again be part of the team," America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo told Axios.
A Republican National Committee official told Newsweek they expect coordination with America PAC on canvassing efforts, though decisions on specific states and districts have not yet been finalized.
The official said Republicans believe recent changes to campaign finance rules, following the Supreme Court's ruling in NRSC v. FEC, have created new opportunities to coordinate spending more strategically across party committees, candidates and allied groups.
"Elon Musk dropping millions into the midterm elections tells you everything you need to know about the Republican Party: They are backed by out-of-touch billionaires, big corporations, and special interests, not everyday Americans," Democratic National Committee spokesperson Jaelin O'Halloran told Newsweek in an emailed statement.
"But make no mistake: The American people didn't want Musk running the federal government, and they don't want him buying our elections either. Voters across the country will see right through the Musk-Trump playbook and Republicans in November."
Newsweek also contacted America PAC for further comment via email.
Explore the map below to see where Musk's political spending could have the biggest effect on the fight for control of Congress.
This map does not predict where America PAC will spend or operate in 2026. It identifies the states where a large Republican turnout operation could have the greatest potential impact.
Why It Matters
Money alone does not decide elections. Yet turnout operations can matter enormously in close contests, particularly in midterm years when participation is generally lower than in presidential election cycles.
That is the significance of America PAC's return. Rather than focusing solely on television advertising, the organization's reported strategy centers on identifying supporters and making sure they vote.
The PAC intends to focus heavily on door-knocking, digital outreach and direct mail, Axios reports.
Mapping a Potential Midterm Turnout Machine
Newsweek's analysis ranks states using three factors.
States with competitive Senate races, as identified by Ballotpedia, were given particular weight because turnout operations can influence an entire statewide electorate rather than a single congressional district.
That puts states such as Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Maine, Florida and Iowa near the center of the 2026 battleground map.
Competitive House races, as highlighted by Ballotpedia, were also a major factor, with battleground districts clustered in states such as California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Texas, Arizona and New York.
Recent turnout trends from the States United Democracy Center add another layer, as participation remained strong across several key swing states in 2024 while slipping slightly in places such as Arizona and North Carolina.
Taken together, those factors help identify where a large-scale Republican turnout operation could have the greatest potential impact.
Related Story
Ex-Squad Member Cori Bush Chances of Defeating Wesley Bell in Missouri Race
Why Michigan Emerges as Strongest Candidate
Few states tick more boxes than Michigan.
The state is home to an open Senate contest after Democratic Senator Gary Peters announced he would not seek a third term, creating one of the most closely watched races of the cycle. Ballotpedia classifies the race as a battleground.
At the same time, three Michigan House districts are considered battleground contests: the 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts.
The States United Democracy Center also reported that Michigan recorded a turnout rate of 72 percent in the 2024 election, among the highest in the nation.
That combination of a closely watched Senate race, competitive House contests and proved voter engagement makes Michigan arguably the clearest test case for a major turnout operation in 2026.
North Carolina, Ohio Could Be Turnout Labs
North Carolina occupies a unique position on the map.
The state is expected to host another of the country's most closely watched Senate races, pitting former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, while also sitting in a region where turnout fluctuations can play a major role in election outcomes.
Ballotpedia identifies North Carolina as a Senate battleground, while the States United Democracy Center found turnout dipped slightly compared with 2020 levels.
Ohio may be equally intriguing. While Republicans have strengthened their position there in recent years, the state's Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown remains on several battleground lists and could become another proving ground for turnout-focused campaigning.
Why Texas, Florida Cannot Be Ignored
Neither state fits the traditional image of a razor-thin swing state.
Yet both appear on Senate battleground lists and contain multiple competitive House seats.
Texas currently features battlegrounds such as the 15th, 28th and 34th Congressional Districts, while Florida includes battleground races in the 14th, 22nd, 23rd and 25th Districts.
Texas also features a closely watched Senate race between Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico, with some race ratings shifting toward greater competitiveness in recent months, adding to the state's significance on the 2026 battleground map.
For Republicans, the importance of these states is not necessarily about flipping territory. Instead, a significant outside operation could help protect existing advantages and free party committees to spend resources elsewhere.
That strategic flexibility may prove every bit as valuable as the turnout boost itself.
...
California, New York and the Race for House Control
The House map tells a somewhat different story.
While Senate battlegrounds are concentrated in a relatively small number of states, competitive House districts are dispersed across larger states that are not typically thought of as presidential battlegrounds.
California and New York stand out.
Several California districts appear on major battleground lists, including the 22nd, 45th and 48th Congressional Districts.
New York remains home to a collection of competitive suburban seats that could once again prove decisive in determining House control.
That means an organization focused on field operations could potentially target individual districts rather than entire states, making these blue-leaning states unexpectedly important to the broader congressional picture.
Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia Remain Central
Arizona contains two House races currently considered toss-ups by several ratings organizations.
Pennsylvania features multiple battleground districts, including the 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts.
Georgia continues to combine statewide competitiveness with demographic and political change.
None of those states ranks quite as highly as Michigan when the three core criteria are combined, but all remain obvious destinations for any national turnout effort seeking maximum influence.
What Happens Next
While Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Florida and a handful of other states sit at the intersection of competitive races and turnout potential, it remains to be seen where America PAC will target its political investment.
As the midterms draw nearer, spending patterns from super PACs and party committees could reveal whether these battleground states become the central front in the struggle for control of Congress.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly, Shakeema Edwards and Sam Wilson.
Update 7/31/26, 3:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the Democratic National Committee.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines