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By Giulia Carbonaro
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More frequent and more severe extreme weather events, from wildfires to hurricanes, are expected to cost billions of dollars more every year to the most vulnerable states, with a new study finding that the 10 highest-risk states will pay nearly 50 percent more by 2050.
Historical data clearly shows that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent due to global warming, with the number of natural disasters worldwide increasing fivefold over the past 50 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, a U.N. agency. Not only are these events happening more often, but they are also more destructive. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 313 of the 403 weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 where overall damages reached or exceeded $1 billion occurred since 2000. Of these, 115 occurred between 2020 and 2024 alone.
Experts seem to agree that things will get worse in the coming years, unless world leaders happen to agree to drastically reduce human emissions of heat-trapping gases. A study published this year by University of Chicago Asst. Prof. B. B. Cael found that costs caused by natural disasters could amount to more than $1 trillion in damages between 2026 and 2030 in the U.S. alone.
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Now, a new study by property data platform Cotality projects that average annual losses caused by extreme weather events are projected to rise sharply by 2050 for both the nation’s highest-risk states and the lowest-risk ones, with flooding, hurricanes and severe storms set to drive the largest losses.
Which States Are Most at Risk from Extreme Weather Events
With a score of 100, Louisiana tops Cotality’s list as the riskiest states in the nation, with damages from all weather perils estimated to cost $6.7 billion in average annual losses. The state’s costliest peril is currently hurricanes, but researchers expect flooding to overtake by 2050 and account for $3.8 billion in the state’s total $11.4 billion in average annual losses, up by over 70 percent from now.
Every state was ranked based on the perils it faced, rather than how many homes were exposed to them.
Mississippi and Florida follow as the second and third riskiest states, mainly due to their hurricane exposure. Losses from all perils are expected to jump 62.3 percent in Florida by 2050 to $17.5 billion, while in Mississippi they will rise 54.1 percent to $4.5 billion.
A surprise comes with the fourth riskiest state, West Virginia, which inland flooding propels ahead of disaster-prone states like Texas and Oklahoma. The state’s total losses are estimated at $989 million, “a substantial burden for a state with roughly 900,000 homes,” researchers wrote.
“When people think of extreme weather, they usually think of places like California, Texas and Florida, but the most severe concentrations of risk aren’t always where you’d expect,” Dr. Howard Botts, chief scientist at Cotality, said in a statement. “West Virginia doesn’t have headline-grabbing hurricanes or wildfires, but its topography leaves it highly exposed. Much of its housing sits in mountain valleys, so as the region gets wetter, flood risk is rising sharply.”
Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Alabama and Missouri completed the top 10. Overall, these states collectively face $43 billion in average annual losses from weather risks, according to Cotality.
The highest number of homes exposed to extreme weather, however, are in California and Texas, where 10.4 million homes are in peril of being damaged or destroyed by wildfires, flooding, hurricanes and earthquakes.
Annual wildfire losses are projected to nearly double by 2050 in the Golden State, from $2.9 billion to $5 billion. In Texas, researchers expect severe storms to become the state’s number one peril, at an estimated $7.4 billion in average annual losses—nearly two-thirds of the state’s current losses from all perils.
Which States Face the Lowest Risk
The District of Columbia ranked as the lowest-risk of any state or district, with $31 million in average annual losses from all weather perils combined. Pennsylvania ($2.3 billion), Maryland ($609 million), Michigan ($2.3 billion), Virginia ($1.9 billion), New Hampshire ($362 million), Arizona ($1.4 billion), Oregon ($1 billion), and Nevada ($680 million) followed in the top 10.
Combined, the 10 lowest-risk states face $10.9 billion in average annual losses from all perils, roughly the same as Florida alone.
But in Cotality’s analysis, there are no real winners. Even the 10 lowest-risk states are expected to see losses rise by an average of 37.9 percent by 2050, according to researchers. Maryland in particular is projected to see a rise in weather-related losses of 50.4 percent by 2050, from $609 million to $916 million.
Costly Losses Spell Trouble for Homeowners And Insurers
Homeowner insurance premiums have risen significantly since the pandemic, with a NerdWallet study estimating the typical U.S. homeowner is paying 24 percent more in early 2026 than they were three years earlier, for an average of $2,564.
The number one reason why premiums have gone up is the growing risk posed by more frequent and more severe natural disasters, which heightened the chance of carriers having to pay expensive damage claims to homeowners. For this reason, states like California and Florida have seen many carriers cut coverage or fail to renew policies in the most vulnerable communities in recent years.
In the Golden State, where strict legislation prevents carriers from introducing large premium increases, regulators now allow insurers to use forward-looking catastrophe models and net reinsurance costs to set premiums. But between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, premiums in California still rose by 1.8 percent, according to NerdWallet.
In many parts of the country, homeowners are struggling to keep up with premium increases, with some choosing to go “bare” instead—a risky move should disaster strike their neighborhood. And experts believe premiums will continue rising.
The topic of homeowner insurance has become deeply entrenched in the national conversation about affordability, which spans from gasoline and groceries to housing. State and federal lawmakers are increasingly likely to be asked about solutions to the rising cost of coverage in the coming years.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Emma Lee-Sang
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