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By Marni Rose McFall
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The global population landscape is set to experience a significant shift, as some countries grapple with dramatic declines while others anticipate major growth.
New analysis from the World Population Review highlights which countries are the most at risk of a population decline, and Newsweek has compiled the data into a new map.
Map Shows Countries Most At Risk of a Population Crisis
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Eastern European countries are being hit with the steepest population declines globally. According to the World Population Review, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia are among the nations projected to lose over 20 percent of their populations by 2050.
The main drivers of this trend are mass emigration, low birth rates and aging demographics.
Bulgaria is expected to experience a 22.5 percent decrease, with its population dropping from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million by 2050. Similarly, Lithuania's population is forecast to shrink by 22.1 percent, and Latvia anticipates a 21.6 percent decline within the same period.
This pattern of decrease is not limited to Eastern Europe. In Asia, Japan, another country with a significant aging population, is projected to experience a 16.3 percent decrease by 2050, losing over 20 million residents. With one of the lowest fertility rates globally—1.42 births per woman—the country faces increasing challenges in maintaining a balanced workforce.
The implications of population decline extend beyond numbers: shrinking populations can strain economies, reduce the labor force, and challenge social services, particularly in countries with aging demographics.
In a previous interview with Newsweek, a spokesperson for the Institute of Development Studies said that "In countries that will continue to experience high rates of population decline, the potential for economic stagnation and reduced innovation is elevated."
As of December 2024, the United States' population is experiencing modest growth, primarily driven by immigration.
The U.S. Census Bureau's 2023 projections indicate that the population will peak at nearly 370 million around 2080 and then slightly decline to 366 million by 2100.
Newsweek has reached out to the U.S. Census Bureau outside of normal working hours via email for comment.
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China, currently home to 1.4 billion people, faces its own demographic challenges. The country's growth rate has turned negative, with its population expected to halve to 662.8 million by 2100.
This decline is partly attributed to the long-term effects of its now-reversed one-child policy, which has resulted in a disproportionate number of elderly citizens. By 2100, the largest age group in China is projected to be 75-79-year-olds.
South Korea offers a striking example of extreme low fertility rates. With women having an average of 0.68 children, the country's population is expected to become predominantly elderly by the end of the century.
Social movements like the 4B feminist protest movement, where South Korean women are encouraged not to have children, or any kind of relationship with the opposite sex, is an example of how some Koreans may be less likely to want to start a family. By 2100, the largest age cohort in South Korea is anticipated to be 85-89-year-olds.
Countries Set for Population Growth
On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa is poised for a population boom. The Census Bureau projects that Congo, with its current growth rate of 3.1 percent, will see its population soar from 115 million today to an estimated 584 million by 2100. The region's youthful demographic profile contrasts sharply with the aging populations in parts of Asia and Europe.
However, experts caution that this growth could come with challenges. "Youth bulges in particular have been associated with increased risk of conflict," the spokesperson Institute of Development Studies said.
Canada has maintained stable population levels, thanks to high immigration, in spite of low fertility rates.
In April, Canada's population climbed to 41 million. The population sat at 37.5 million in 2019. However, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently announced that his government had failed to correctly measure the balance of migrants coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
His government had initially allowed 500,000 new permanent residents into Canada in each of the next two years, but in October, Trudeau said that next year's target changed to 395,000 new permanent residents, followed by 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
Despite this, the Census Bureau predicts Canada will sustain its population through 2100, contingent on consistent immigration policies. Following the results of the 2024 election, searches for "moving to Canada," soared, with many Americans appearing to consider the idea of relocating north, with Google Trends reporting a peak number of searches related to the topic.
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