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A strengthening El Niño could leave parts of the United States exposed to the possibility of weather-related power disruptions.
The climate pattern may increase the likelihood of storms bringing strong winds, heavy rain, snow and ice to parts of the country that may disrupt power supplies, meteorologists told Newsweek.
Which Parts of the U.S. Could Be Affected?
The Southeast and Northwest are among the regions facing the greatest risk of power disruptions, according to Matt Jones, meteorologist and manager of weather presentation at The Weather Channel.
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“During El Niño, the subtropical jet will steer storms into the California coast at a higher frequency than average this winter,” he told Newsweek.
“The Northeast is another region of the United States that could see an increased threat for power outages. El Niño could influence the number of coastal storms along the East Coast that could develop into powerful nor’easters.”
Pacific storm systems could move onshore and bring strong winds to these regions, posing the main threat of power outages this winter, the meteorologist said. Heavy rain and high-elevation snow could also contribute to outages.
El Niño will also raise the likelihood of coastal storms in the Northeast.
“If the cold air matches up with these storms, you have a recipe for widespread outages from heavy snow and strong hurricane-force winds,” Jones said.
Jones previously told Newsweek that El Niño influences the odds of particular conditions, rather than guaranteeing individual events.
“El Niño influences the averages and the odds. It will likely tell you if the deck is stacked for or against you, but it cannot tell you what card is next,” he said.
“Our tendency is to lump El Niño into a group with other meteorological events such as nor’easters, clippers, blizzards, etc. However, we have to think of El Niño as an influencer not a driver to what will happen.”
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Tornadoes Add to the Risk
AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek that the storm track could shift toward California, Nevada and the Four Corners from late December through the rest of winter, increasing the risk of power outages in those areas.
Isolated outages could also occur in the central Plains, where storms may bring snow and ice, particularly in January and February. Pastelok said ice could build up on power lines from the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf states to the lower Appalachians, western and northern Virginia, and Maryland, especially during the middle and latter parts of winter.
The severity of any disruption in California and the Southwest could depend partly on the time between storms, according to Pastelok.
“If they are constant, similar to most strong and super El Niños, the break will be small and it will be more difficult to resolve problems,” he said.
Flooding and washed-out roads could make it harder to reach the source of outages, with some disruptions potentially lasting days or, in certain places, weeks, he added.
“Tornadoes are common with strong El Niños across the Southeast, especially Florida. If there are several tornadoes in a certain area and rather strong, this can cause major disruption to power for weeks but in isolated areas of the Southeast,” Pastelok said. “Coverage area may be smaller, but intense.”
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide.
In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
Experts around the world have been pointing to a historic event. In the U.S., federal forecasters said last month they expect El Niño to continue to strengthen through 2026, and that the odds remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous event, dating to 1950.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Dave Siminoff.
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