10
Loading video...
By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Gas prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since July, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), driven down by lower crude oil prices, the traditional post-summer drop in demand, and the shift to the cheaper winter blend.
They could fall below $3 per gallon on Thanksgiving, November 26, in a handful or more stations in at least 14 states, according to analyst Patrick De Haan, including Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wisconsin. Drivers could also find prices below $3 per gallon in Michigan and Nebraska on Thanksgiving, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis wrote on X, though he warned: “maybe don't hold your breath.”
Newsweek contacted De Haan and the White House for comment by email on Tuesday morning.
Read More on News
Average Gas Prices Today, By State
As of Monday, according to EIA, the national average price for a gallon of regular gas was $3.995, down by 16 cents from a week earlier but still up nearly a dollar from a year earlier. As of Tuesday morning, according to data by the American Automobile Association (AAA), gas prices have fallen to a national average of $3.979 per gallon, down from $4.149 a week ago and from $4.367 a month ago, while still up from $3.071 a year earlier.
Drivers in California paid the highest price at the pump, for a statewide average of $5.71 per gallon. In two other states, only gas prices were above $5 per gallon, including Hawaii ($5.63) and Nevada ($5.04). In Washington, prices have finally fallen below $5 per gallon, at $4.98 per gallon on Tuesday.
Gas prices were also above the national average in Rhode Island ($3.98), Nebraska ($3.98), Montana ($4.00), West Virginia ($4.03), New Jersey ($4.03), Massachusetts ($4.07), New Hampshire ($4.07), Michigan ($4.08), Wyoming ($4.11), Connecticut ($4.13), Maine ($4.14), Arizona ($4.23), New York ($4.23), Vermont ($4.24), the District of Columbia ($4.26), Idaho ($4.29), Utah ($4.31), Pennsylvania ($4.34), Illinois ($4.43), Alaska ($4.58) and Oregon ($4.62).
The lowest gas prices could be found in North Carolina ($3.23 per gallon), Texas ($3.45), Georgia ($3.45), South Carolina ($3.49), Louisiana ($3.55), Indiana ($3.57), Tennessee ($3.57), Oklahoma ($3.57), Alabama ($3.57) and Arkansas ($3.61).
Gas prices were also lower than the national average in Mississippi ($3.64), Missouri ($3.67), Kentucky ($3.72), Kansas ($3.72), Ohio ($3.75), Florida ($3.77), Iowa ($3.82), Colorado ($3.83), Virginia ($3.83), New Mexico ($3.84), North Dakota ($3.84), Minnesota ($3.87), Wisconsin ($3.88), Delaware ($3.89), South Dakota ($3.90), and Maryland ($3.91).
...
Why Gas Prices Started Falling in the Wake of Midterms
Gas prices, which soared across the U.S. because disruptions caused by the Iran war reduced the world’s oil production and distribution, were the highest in any previous election in the 2026 midterms. Many voters blamed Republicans for the pain they felt at the pump, as shown by a poll released in September by progressive pollster Data for Progress.
While higher fuel prices turned into a big national talking point in the build-up to the elections, Trump repeatedly minimized the issue, saying spending more for gas or diesel was a “small price to pay” to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
Voters, however, appeared to disagree. The midterms, which analysts largely saw as a referendum on the Trump administration even as the president said his name was not on the ballot, significantly punished Republicans, delivering the “blue tsunami” that Democrats only dared to dream about before November 3.
“I don’t think it’s the war, I think it’s the gas prices,” Trump said on a phone call with Fox News after Election Day. “People agree with what I’m doing in Iran, but they really, probably weren’t willing to do the short-term consequence of paying more for gasoline.”
He said he understood voters’ concerns, though he added: “I don’t agree with it, and I would say to people, you know: ‘It’s a short-term problem but for long-term gain’.”
Gas prices have fallen since November 3, even as they remain more than 30 percent higher than when Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28. The reason has hardly anything to do with the Democrats winning control of Congress, not least because Republicans will control Congress until January.
“Gas prices are falling and some people are already crediting (or blaming) the midterms. Here’s what’s actually going on: it’s fall, and prices tend to drop in the fall,” De Haan said in a post on X.
“The biggest factor is the switch to winter gasoline. After Sept. 15, stations can sell winter-blend, which is cheaper to make. Summer gas has to meet tighter evaporation rules, and that costs refiners more. Demand drops too. Summer driving season ends after Labor Day, and with fewer road trips and vacations, gasoline demand cools off while supply stays plentiful.
“From Sept. 1 to Nov. 9, the national average fell in 13 of the 18 years from 2008 to 2025,” De Haan said. “The typical drop was about 25-55 cents. This year it’s down about 35 cents, influenced by geopolitical trends that are improving (for now).”
A big part of the decline is due to oil futures plunging 13 percent last week, with Brent, the global crude oil benchmark, reporting the biggest one-week percentage drop since April 2020. Oil prices fell by another 5 percent on Monday, to their lowest point since August 31.
What's the Prediction for Holiday Gas Pricing in 2026?
If there are no disruptions in the Middle East between now and then, gas prices are predicted to keep falling, reaching an average of $3.86 on December 1 as winter-blend fuel reaches the market and down to $3.72 by January 1, according to Fuel Price Atlas. Diesel prices are expected to experience a similar trend, sliding from their high of $6.25 per gallon in September and October to a forecast of $5.34 on December 1 and $5.05 by January 1.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes, Gray R. Thomas
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines