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A growing number of U.S. states are seeing more people die than are born, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data.
The U.S. fertility rate has fallen well below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman, raising questions about future workforce growth and the sustainability of Social Security.
Altogether, 17 states recorded more deaths than births between July 2024 and July 2025. That marked a sharp increase from much of the 2010s, when only four states typically experienced a natural decrease, according to Census Bureau population estimates.
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Why It Matters
Fertility rates continue falling across the country, including in Utah, which has long been known for having some of America's largest families.
A mix of rising housing costs, delayed marriage and shifting cultural attitudes are likely contributing to fewer births. And while immigration and domestic migration can offset population losses, states where deaths consistently outnumber births face long-term demographic challenges.
States Where Deaths Outnumbered Births
According to Census Bureau estimates covering July 2024 through July 2025, the following states experienced natural population decline:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau population estimates compiled by Visual Capitalist.
Pennsylvania recorded the largest natural decrease, followed by West Virginia, Maine and Michigan.
Many of the states experiencing more deaths than births are concentrated in the Northeast and Appalachia, regions with relatively older populations.
However, the cost of having and raising a child no doubt plays a role as well, according to experts.
“It's just not feasible for families planning to have more children simply because they may not be able to afford to,” Divya Sangameshwar, a LendingTree insurance researcher, told Utah news station KUTV last year.
“The rising cost associated with having a child, combined with inflation and job insecurity, could prompt families to delay or forego having children.”
The States Bucking the Trend
Several states continued to maintain strong natural population growth.
Texas recorded the largest increase, with about 157,700 more births than deaths during the period, followed by California (109,700), New York (42,800), Georgia (28,600) and Utah (24,961).
“Economic factors such as housing and childcare costs and broader social factors like postponement of marriage and childbearing all influence fertility rate declines,” Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the Gardner Institute, told Utah Business.
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Migration Is Becoming More Important
A state's overall population can still grow even when deaths exceed births.
Florida is one of the clearest examples. Although the state recorded a natural decrease, it remains one of the fastest-growing states because it attracts large numbers of new residents from other states in the U.S. and abroad.
That means migration could increasingly become the key factor separating growing states from shrinking ones as birth rates fall nationwide.
“With natural change less of a contributor to growth than it used to be, some states – especially those without positive net domestic migration – are dependent on international migration for their population to grow,” Marc Perry, a senior demographer
at the U.S. Census Bureau said in a January report.
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What Happens Next
Births and deaths are expected to play a smaller role in determining population growth in many parts of the country as fertility remains low and the U.S. population continues to age.
For states already experiencing natural decrease, attracting new residents could become increasingly important to maintaining economic growth and supporting local businesses
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
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