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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spent the 1 1/2 weeks since the midterms practicing diplomacy, from a G7 meeting in France to Washington, while his party is in flames. He has refused to talk about any of it.
On Sunday, as he left for France, a reporter asked whether the cost of the Iran war was worth the electoral blowout. "I just don't have any opinion on what happened in the election," he said.
He stuck to that position on Monday. Asked whether he still stood by his past promise to be the first to support Vice President JD Vance if he ran for president, Rubio told reporters: "I'm not going to discuss 2028. I'm not going to discuss it in any form or fashion." A reporter tried 2032 instead.
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"Not even," Rubio said, laughing.
Rubio and Vance have long been seen as the two front-runners to succeed President Donald Trump in 2028. A week and a half after Republicans lost a net 41 House seats and eight Senate seats—marking the GOP's worst midterm performance in both chambers since 1958—the two men find themselves in very different positions.
Vance's standing has taken a hit. The day after the election, he posted a lengthy eulogy for the GOP on X, blaming the Iran war for the losses. The ceasefire he negotiated fell apart in June, and Vance has become closely tied to the administration's failed strategy in the Middle East. The Ohio governor's race, in which he was heavily involved, also adds to his problems.
Rubio, by contrast, has largely avoided the blame and kept his distance from the political fallout. Republican strategists and political analysts consulted by Newsweek say that this cautious approach could give the secretary of state an opening in the race for the nomination.
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Why Marco Rubio Stayed Off the Midterm Campaign Trail
For most of the midterms campaign, Rubio was nowhere near it. Other Cabinet members crisscrossed the country for Republican candidates as the midterms got closer, and he largely stayed home. In August, a State Department spokesperson said the absence was a way to "avoid any appearance of partisanship in the conduct of foreign relations."
He broke that pattern for one short swing. In late October, Rubio joined Trump at two events in Texas, traveling in his capacity as national security adviser, and used the stops to promote the administration's ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. "We love Marco," Trump told the crowd. Rubio was then expected at a Trump rally in Ohio but dropped out of the trip.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, said the distance was partly about propriety. He thinks it also paid off.
"I also think that he benefited politically from not being front and center on the campaign trail, whereas JD Vance very much was, and so was President Trump," Steinhauser told Newsweek. "So that probably will help him by having a little distance."
Rubio has framed his silence as tradition. "I think this role is best done for the most part when you don't engage yourself in domestic politics," he told reporters on Sunday, calling it "a new thing for me after having spent 14 years doing it."
The foreign policy he does talk about is mostly in Latin America, where Rubio has effectively run U.S. policy since Trump returned to office. Maduro's capture in January and a string of right-leaning election wins in the region, including Asfura's, give him a record he can point to that has nothing to do with Iran.
Alex Patton, a Republican strategist with Ozean Media, said Rubio has an option Vance lacks.
"Rubio can choose to resign, a path not really available to VP Vance," he said. "If Rubio can delicately put some space between himself and the current environment, he remains a top tier potential GOP candidate."
Can Florida Boost Rubio's 2028 Case?
Rubio's home state was one of the few bright spots for Republicans on November 3. Byron Donalds beat Democrat David Jolly by 1.3 points in the governor's race, while Senator Ashley Moody held the seat Rubio vacated, defeating Democrat Angie Nixon 51 percent to 48 percent. The Cuban-American caucus also held on to its House seats, with GOP representatives Maria Elvira Salazar, Carlos Gimenez and Mario Diaz-Balart all winning reelection.
Steinhauser said Rubio, a former Florida House speaker and senator, can sell that as a model.
"He can talk about Republicans keeping the US Senate seats there and keeping the governorship there, and how Florida is a model for success," he said, adding that Rubio would be expected to do well in a Florida primary and to keep the state in a general election.
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Steinhauser also pointed to Rubio's reach across the party. He rose with the Tea Party in 2010, establishment Republicans and moderates are comfortable with him, and he now has standing with MAGA voters from his time in the Trump administration.
"JD might be more favorable among a certain faction, less favorable than another," Steinhauser said. Rubio, by contrast, "has a foot in these different camps."
Not everyone buys the Florida argument. Patton said Rubio "had little, if anything, to do with Florida remaining in Republican hands," and that it won't help him much, especially with Governor Ron DeSantis taking credit for the results.
Brendan O'Leary, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that Florida stayed Republican by a hair's breadth in both statewide races.
"If you start with having to defend Florida you are not in a good position as a Republican candidate," he told Newsweek.
How the Iran War Hurt JD Vance's 2028 Outlook
Another factor shaping Rubio's prospects is the position of his biggest potential rival for the nomination.
Many interpreted Vance's post-election eulogy for the GOP as an attempt to distance himself from a war he had helped manage. Vance, who initially opposed military action against Iran, led efforts this summer to broker a diplomatic settlement. The ceasefire he negotiated fell apart after two weeks.
Trump told reporters Vance's assessment was "largely true," acknowledging that the war had pushed up gas prices, though he stood by his decision to go to war.
CNN has also reported that officials close to the vice president worry Republicans cannot win in 2028 if the war remains an issue during the campaign. Others, including former national security adviser John Bolton, have questioned whether Vance can carry Trump's political movement forward.
The results in Vance's home state of Ohio added to his problems. Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican Senator Jon Husted for the seat Vance vacated when he became vice president. Democrat Amy Acton also defeated Vivek Ramaswamy by nearly 8 points in the governor's race, in a state Trump won by more than 11 points in 2024.
"Vance owns that failure," O'Leary said.
Prediction markets still put Vance ahead, but his odds have fallen. When Polymarket opened its 2028 market in July 2025, he had a 56 percent chance of winning the nomination. By Wednesday evening, that figure had dropped to 31 percent, though he remained ahead of Rubio.
Patton argues the next presidential race will likely be a change election, giving an advantage to a candidate who can offer voters a fresh direction. He said Vance's close ties to the administration could make that difficult.
"Vance as VP likely won't be able to carry a change message with his primary role being supporting the President," Patton told Newsweek.
Rubio enters 2028 from a different position. He built his Senate career as a foreign policy hawk, with views that once clashed with Trump's "America First" approach. He rose to prominence with the Tea Party in 2010 before gaining support from establishment Republicans. Now, he is one of Trump's top advisers, and the president often praises him as one of the biggest stars in his Cabinet.
"Rubio has a foot in these different camps," Steinhauser said.
Patton, who has watched Rubio's career for years, called him "a talented shape-shifting-survivor able to mold to the requirements of the time."
"Bet against him and his political instincts at your own peril," he said.
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Will Rubio Run in 2028 or Wait for 2032?
Iran is a problem for Rubio too. As secretary of state and national security adviser, he has been at the center of the war since it began in February.
"Rubio is more deeply implicated than Vance in the failure of the US and Israel war against Iran," O'Leary said. If Rubio wants to run and win, he added, "he will have to display 'disloyalty,' and the sooner the better."
Steinhauser made a similar point. If Rubio runs, he said, "he would have to defend the president's decisions on foreign policy, especially Iran. And so he's going to have to discuss that and debate that and take positions on that."
Trump has not named a successor. A month into the war, he was privately asking allies and advisers "JD or Marco?" He has also floated a ticket with both men. Rubio has said he would not run if Vance does.
Early polling shows Rubio within reach. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted November 6-9, 45 percent of Republican voters said Rubio would make an excellent presidential candidate, compared with 43 percent for Vance. Only 5 percent called Rubio a poor choice.
O'Leary argued Rubio may be better off without Trump's blessing. "The 'leader' of the Republican Party, or any party, does not own the party," he said. "Rubio would benefit from not receiving Trump's 'anointment.' The winner in 2028 will not be someone who runs endorsing Trump, or what Trump has done."
History is another hurdle. Steinhauser noted that the midterms suggest the pendulum may be swinging back.
"If you're Rubio or Vance or anyone looking to run for president on the Republican side, you have to consider the possibility that this may not be your cycle, that you may wait until the next one," he said.
O'Leary went further. Rubio "would be prudent to wait for 2032, which is why he might remain loyal," he said.
Rubio is expected to speak later Friday at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention in Washington, delivering the Barbara Olson Memorial Lecture at the Mayflower Hotel. It is his first major speech outside his diplomatic duties since the midterms, and many conservatives in the room will be listening for any hint about his plans.
“There are a lot of people in the room who are going to be wondering if he’s still planning on running for president someday,” Rachel Paulose, a former U.S. attorney, told Fox News Digital.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Steve Mollman and Edward T. Cummins
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