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By Andrew Stanton
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A new poll of Alaska's 2026 Senate race showed Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola only one point behind incumbent GOP Senator Dan Sullivan.
Newsweek reached out to Sullivan's campaign and the Alaska Democratic Party for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Alaska is among the states Democrats are hoping to make competitive in next year's Senate races, though it backed President Donald Trump by double-digits in the 2024 presidential race.
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Democrats must win at least two Senate races in double-digit Trump states to win back control of the Senate. Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points—and North Carolina—which voted for Trump by only three points—are viewed as Democrats' top targets. However, no other Harris or single-digit Trump states are up for grabs, so they are looking at races in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential opportunities.
What to Know
A new Data for Progress poll released on Friday suggested Alaska could be competitive if Peltola jumps into the race. Peltola represented Alaska's at-large Congressional seat from 2022 to 2025 and narrowly lost to GOP Representative Nick Begich III in November.
She has not made her plans clear for 2026 but has been floated as a potential candidate in either the Senate or gubernatorial race.
The polling memo wrote that Peltola is "uniquely popular," being viewed positively by 52 percent of Alaskans despite the state's conservative bent.
If she were to challenge Sullivan in the Senate race, the incumbent would hold only a one-point lead at this point in time, the poll found. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for him, while 45 percent said they would cast their ballots for Peltola. An additional 5 percent said they would not rank either candidate, while 4 percent were still unsure.
The survey was taken July 21 to 27 and polled 678 likely voters in Alaska using SMS and web panel respondents. The poll's margin of error associated with the sample size is ±4 percentage points.
Notably, Alaska uses a ranked choice voting system. In the primary, the four candidates who receive the most support advance to the general election, regardless of their party. In the general, voters rank their candidates based on preference. Candidates are eliminated one-by-one until one reaches 50 percent support.
Peltola, meanwhile, held a lead over Republican candidates in a hypothetical poll of the governor race. On the first round of ranked choice, 54 percent of respondents said they would vote for her.
Trump carried Alaska by about 13 percentage points last November.
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What People Are Saying
Elisa Rios, a former campaign manager for Peltola, told The Alaska Beacon in July: "It's really just where she can make the greatest impact for Alaskans. She is going to make that decision on her own time."
Jason Katz-Brown, of Data for Progress, told The 19th News on Friday: "The policies that she spent her whole last two years running on, especially on fisheries policy, are really, really popular things in Alaska, and the policies of the Republican governor are extremely unpopular. All that's combined, I think, really backs up the people in the state who really want to see a Peltola governorship."
What Happens Next?
The Cook Political Report classifies the Alaska Senate and gubernatorial race as being "Solid Republican." Sabato's Crystal Ball lists the Senate race as Solid Republican, but the gubernatorial race as Likely Republican.
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