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By Nick Mordowanec
Staff Writer
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Mexico is expected to have a woman leading the country following this Sunday's election.
Immigration experts told Newsweek that the new president will have to play a vital role in the country's relationship with the United States, including more progress toward limiting illegal migrant crossings, which could lead to economic benefits for all.
Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is predicted to win after leading polls for months by double digits against Xóchitl Gálvez, a former mayor and businesswoman. They are running to succeed the term-limited President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Jorge Álvarez Máynez, has signifcantly trailed in polls.
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Sheinbaum is running as part of Obrador's Morena Party and has vowed to continue pushing many of his policies.
But where the pair could differ from a policy perspective is immigration. Those observing rising illegal immigration into the U.S. throughout the past three years say that President Joe Biden and perhaps former President Donald Trump—the presumptive Republican nominee—can benefit from a more cohesive relationship with Mexico's new leader.
David Abraham, a law professor at the University of Miami who specializes in immigration, told Newsweek that a Sheinbaum administration would be more heavily committed to an international human rights framework because it's a basis for Mexico's position in the global South, with other national interests including securing its own border again Central and South American migrants.
"Given the importance of this for Biden, I expect that Sheinbaum would be in a strong position to get concessions of various sorts," Abraham said, citing labor visas and tariff reductions. "Despite all talk about Gaza and Ukraine, for most American voters it still seems like the border is issue No. 1 and [Biden's] very aware of that."
Rafael Fernández de Castro, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, and director of the school's Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies (USMEX), told Newsweek that he anticipates a Sheinbaum win and believes immigration will play a "formidable role" in her presidency.
"Expect that whoever comes to power, they understand it's a problem they must solve because it affects Mexico, affects the U.S.," Castro said. "It's become a new phenomenon as the U.S. border has become connected to the well-being of the world."
The issue should be pivotal in a little more than two years, when the U.S., Mexico and Canada will discuss whether to continue the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
A review clause for the free trade agreement is scheduled to take place on July 1, 2026, and will be "paramount for Mexican well-being" to aid the U.S. market standing that provides an economic lift for both countries.
As Mexicans customarily see Haitian and Venezuelan migrants "all over the place," not just near the U.S. border but across all parts of the nation, Castro said the issue requires more bilateral discussions.
"The only thing we need is to have an orderly, safe and legal migration process," he said. "I think there's a consensus."
Margath Walker, a professor in the departments of geography and geosciences and urban and public affairs at the University of Louisville, told Newsweek that there has been a "degree of political inconsistency" in how Obrador has approached immigration.
When he was first elected, he presented a hardened stance of not being the United States' piñata and caving to pressure to act as the ally's "wall," she said.
"But since 2019, Mexico's president has done some of the heavy lifting for hard-liner U.S. immigration policy," Walker said. "For example, Obrador has increased the detention and deportation of migrants entering Mexico and expanded enforcement efforts along Mexico's southern and northern borders.
"The crackdown even extends to the interior of the country, where the Mexican government has bused apprehended migrants to destinations away from the border and then released them."
There has also been posturing between the U.S. and Mexico to gain leverage in accordance with the issue of immigration, Omar García-Ponce, an assistant political science and international affairs professor at George Washington University, told Newsweek.
"There is a little bit of a mismatch between the perceptions of the U.S. side of things and U.S. government and the domestic situation in Mexico," he said. "On the one hand there are legitimate complaints about immigration being out of control in Mexico."
But on the other, he said, the Mexican government under Obrador has increased migrant apprehensions.
"From the U.S. perspective, Obrador's government is perceived as not doing enough but the emphasis or rhetoric is that they need to address root causes," García-Ponce said.
Immigration lawyer Rosanna Berardi told Newsweek that a Sheinbaum victory could translate to a larger focus on the humane treatment and protection of migrants, potentially advocating for improved conditions and support for those awaiting asylum decisions under the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP).
Other priorities may include enhanced border security measures and collaboration with U.S. authorities to combat human trafficking and organized crime, in addition to bilateral discussions on addressing the root causes of migration such as economic development and security in Central America.
"A victory for Sheinbaum could result in a more predictable and streamlined process for asylum seekers and migrants," Berardi said. "We might witness improved conditions and protections for those awaiting asylum decisions in Mexico, thereby reducing the legal and humanitarian challenges we currently face.
"Moreover, a more comprehensive and humane approach could lead to fewer emergency interventions and a more stable legal framework for handling immigration cases."
While there remains an expectation that Sheinbaum as Obrador's hand-picked successor will offer some semblance of continuity, Walker wonders whether Mexico will continue intense migration controls that have consequences for many.
"These mechanisms are not necessarily long lasting, nor do they get to the root causes of migration," she said. "Currently, uneven enforcement and the militarization of border policy has made the migrant journey more dangerous, yet people continue to risk the conditions in spite of the difficulty.
"This suggests that the policies are either not working or their aims are misguided. The current model built around deterrence, apprehension and containment addresses the symptoms rather than the problem."
Obrador learned to reduce his advocacy for other countries and look more at his own country's interests, notably regarding immigration, Abraham said.
However, he said the current president has turned a blind eye to criminality in areas like drug trafficking and disappearing journalists.
These "deep infrastructural issues that exist" will be at the feet of the new president.
"[Sheinbaum] will find a way, she has to find a way," he said. "It will be impossible to improve their economy and per capita improvements without having the U.S. market for Mexican production. She's going to have to make her peace with it somehow."
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