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Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was projected to win Michigan's U.S. Senate race in the early hours of Wednesday by Fox News, defeating Republican opponent Mike Rogers in one of the most expensive, most followed and bitter contests of the midterm elections.
"Mike, enjoy your retirement," El-Sayed said at his victory party with supporters. "You chose hate. Michigan chose hope," he added.
El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat and former Wayne County health director, finished first in a close contest that took an unexpected turn over the weekend, when Michigan Democratic Representative Haley Stevens withdrew her support for him and endorsed Rogers two days before the election. El-Sayed's victory means Democrats will hold on to a Senate seat they have held since 1979.
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It also means El-Sayed will become the first Muslim member of the U.S. Senate.
Michigan was among several key Senate races this year as Republicans try to defend their majority there, as well as in the House, while Democrats looked to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers.
The result capped a glorious night for the Democratic Party, as flips in Texas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina to give them commanding control of the Senate.
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Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: What Final Polls Showed
El-Sayed entered Election Day ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, 49.8 percent to 44.9 percent.
Recent polling generally shown El-Sayed ahead, although the size of his lead varied. A New York Times/Siena University poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted October 23-November 1 gave him his largest lead of the campaign, 53 percent to Rogers' 42 percent. The margin of error was 3.8 percentage points.
Interviews ended on the day Stevens endorsed Rogers, meaning the survey captured little, if any, reaction to her announcement.
A Trafalgar Group poll conducted October 31-November 1 showed a much closer race, with El-Sayed leading 47 percent to 46 percent among 1,087 likely voters. The margin of error was 2.9 percentage points. A YouGov survey of 2,093 likely voters conducted October 26-29 also showed a close race, with El-Sayed ahead 51 percent to 47 percent. Its margin of error was 3 percentage points.
Other polls have shown El-Sayed with a wider advantage. A Mitchell Research & Communications poll conducted for CBS Detroit and other Michigan stations found him leading 51 percent to 44 percent among 636 likely voters surveyed October 26-27. He also led among independents, 52 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percentage points. A CNN/SSRS poll of 768 likely voters conducted October 20-27 put El-Sayed ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
The race was expensive. El-Sayed raised $30.7 million from mid-July through September, more than three times the $9.7 million Rogers brought in. Outside money narrowed that advantage. Groups had spent nearly $95 million boosting Rogers in the general election by mid-October, compared with $42 million for El-Sayed. The Detroit News put total spending in the contest above $400 million.
How the Michigan Senate Race Took Shape
El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination on August 4 by about 1 point over Stevens, who had warned that he could not beat Rogers. AIPAC's super PAC, United Democracy Project, spent more than $30 million in the primary trying to stop him, then reportedly moved to send up to $9 million to a pro-Rogers super PAC in the final weeks of the general election.
El-Sayed took a victory lap over AIPAC after his win, referring to the group’s spending against him during the primary and general election.
“To AIPAC who spent $42 million against us. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to beat you twice,” he told supporters.
Israel stayed at the center of the race. Rogers accused El-Sayed of fostering antisemitism, citing his criticism of Israel and his campaigning with commentator Hasan Piker. El-Sayed condemned antisemitism and Hamas and argued that criticism of Israel's military campaign in Gaza is not hostility toward Jewish people. He also faced attacks on his Muslim faith and President Donald Trump often mocked his name.
The final week was dominated by a rupture among Michigan Democrats. Stevens demanded on October 30 that El-Sayed apologize for remarks tying Israel to Michigan's unmet needs and condemn an outside group's ad she called antisemitic. El-Sayed said Stevens seemed "intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago," and his campaign asked her to stay away from its final events.
On November 1, Stevens endorsed Rogers and appeared with him at a Detroit church, days after saying she would vote for El-Sayed. She said she remained a Democrat. Several Democrats rebuked her, and El-Sayed's campaign reported raising $2.4 million that day, its largest one-day total of the race.
"Mike Rogers is going to be a vote for Donald Trump," El-Sayed told MS NOW that night. In his closing message, Rogers told supporters that a vote for El-Sayed was a vote for socialism.
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Why Michigan Senate Race Was Critical to Midterms
Democrats were hoping to flip control of both the House and the Senate in this year's midterm elections. Republicans were trying to fight off a potential blue wave as Trump's approval ratings continued to slide and voters expressed concerns tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war.
Republicans held a 53-47 Senate majority, counting independents who caucus with Democrats. Michigan was the only Democratic-held seat among the seven races the Cook Political Report rated as toss-ups towards the end of the campaign, leaving it as Republicans' clearest chance to offset losses elsewhere. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as Leans Democratic.
The contest was also a test of the party's progressive wing. El-Sayed ran on Medicare for All with the backing of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Republicans argued that his politics were too far left for a state Trump has won twice.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Tony Phillips.
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