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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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The mood in the Republican Party in November 2024 was likely triumphant. The GOP had won the Senate, the House of Representatives and the presidency—a hat trick that enabled President Donald Trump to chart the course of U.S. policy with little pushback.
But two years on, spirits within the GOP may be dampened. Negative polling and trends in previous elections suggest the fast approaching midterms will pose significant challenges for the ruling party's chance of clinging onto power.
So Republicans are biting back. Through redistricting efforts in multiple states, attempts to pass new identification rules for voting and a recent Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, the GOP may be able to sway midterm elections in the party's favor.
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GOP Challenges
Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, so the loss of only a few seats would make them lose their majority.
The GOP has performed poorly in a series of recent special elections, and rising gas prices amid the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran—along with recent polling that shows Trump's popularity in a slump—could damage public support for the party further.
Trump, in an October 2025 interview, expressed concerns about losing the midterms.
Speaking to the OAN Network, he said, "The one thing that I worry about is that, if you look over many, many years—I don't have the numbers—but the person that wins the presidency always seems to lose the midterms."
But three recent political trends might save the GOP.
Voting Rights Act
In a 6-3 decision on Wednesday, the Supreme Court weakened four decades of voting rights law, potentially giving Republicans a powerful tool to reshape congressional maps and improve their standing in the midterms and beyond.
The ruling in Louisiana v. Callais strikes down Louisiana's congressional map and rewrites the legal test for proving racial discrimination in redistricting. It opens the door for Republican-controlled states to redraw maps in ways that were previously illegal.
The court's conservative majority found that Louisiana violated the Equal Protection Clause by creating a second majority-Black congressional district to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, said the state could not justify using race in redistricting without showing that Section 2 explicitly required it.
The impact of this decision for 2026 elections is limited because of filing deadlines, but the ruling could help the GOP in 2028 races.
Trump hailed the ruling as a victory for "Equal Protection under the Law," thanking Alito for an opinion he said returned the Voting Rights Act to its "original intent."
However, former President Barack Obama criticized the decision, saying it could allow districts "to systematically dilute and weaken the voting power of racial minorities."
Redistricting
There has been a national redistricting fight in which Republicans and Democrats alike have attempted to draw new state maps to affect the results of future votes and in turn affect the balance of power in Congress.
On Wednesday, Florida state lawmakers passed Governor Ron DeSantis' new congressional map for the state that could boost Republicans' hold on the U.S. House. DeSantis is expected to sign the bill into law imminently, though it could trigger legal challenges.
There have also been Republican redistricting efforts in other states, such as Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. Some of these efforts have sparked legal challenges.
In total, because of the redistricting efforts across the U.S., Democrats have redrawn or secured maps that could net about 10 favorable seats, while Republicans are positioned for roughly nine, a near draw that assumes past voting patterns hold this November, according to analysis by the Associated Press.
Jason Torchinsky, a Republican elections lawyer, told Newsweek, "The Democrats and their allies' pursuit of relentless coordinated multistate litigation to challenge maps in a number of states may well prove to have spectacularly backfired on them."
SAVE Act
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE), which has passed the House, would reshape federal election rules by requiring proof of citizenship and photo identification to vote in elections.
It has drawn criticism from Democrats, who argue it would restrict Americans' access to voting. But polling indicates it is popular with American voters.
Trump, a supporter of the legislation, told House Republicans that it would "guarantee the midterms."
"If you don't get it, big trouble, my opinion," he said.
To become law, the bill now needs to go through the Senate, but there appear to be no immediate plans to consider it.
Torchinsky said it was "just pending legislation and currently has no impact on voting anywhere in the United States."
What Happens Next
The midterm elections are set to take place in November.
Ally Triolo, the election integrity communications director at the Republican National Committee, told Newsweek: "GOP strategy is built on turning out voters, protecting the integrity of every legal vote, and running a disciplined, data-driven operation. The RNC has a full-time election integrity program to clean voter rolls and safeguard the process, while also investing heavily in voter registration and GOTV to mobilize every eligible Republican. Combined with a strong financial advantage and a disciplined allocation of resources, that's how Republicans win in the midterms."
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