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The battle for a Senate majority is seen as competitive ahead of the midterm elections, and the balance of power is likely to come down to seven toss-up races in which both major parties have invested significant funds and energy.
Tuesday's Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are seen as the most competitive, all rated toss-ups, where neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear edge heading into Election Day on Tuesday. With the exception of Michigan, all of those seats are currently held by Republicans.
Seven States Could Determine Balance of Power: Map
The GOP’s Senate majority has been seen as increasingly vulnerable in the final weeks ahead of the elections. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, compared to 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them.
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That means Democrats must flip four seats to win a majority—a task that was seen as an uphill battle at the beginning of election season due to the limited number of clear pickup opportunities. Maine and North Carolina represented the only GOP-held seats up for grabs in states that President Donald Trump either won by single digits or lost in 2024.
But polling suggests Democrats have been able to expand the battleground to compete in more conservative states that Trump carried by double digits in his most recent elections, giving them a chance at winning control of Congress' upper chamber.
Democrats are favored in every seat they currently hold, except for Michigan, and are seen as having an advantage to flip the North Carolina seat held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, according to the Cook Political Report. They also hope to make a play for more conservative states like Mississippi and South Carolina, but Republicans still have an edge there.
That leaves those seven core races as those that could determine control of the Senate in the next Congress.
Bernadette Breslin, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's national press secretary, expressed confidence in Republicans' chances in a statement to Newsweek.
"Senate Democrats’ socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal. Common-sense voters across red-leaning battlegrounds are prepared to reject the dangerously unaffordable agendas of Abdul El-Sayed, Troy Jackson, and Mary Peltola—along with the Democrat Party’s dying brand," she said.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
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Why Senate Is Competitive for Democrats Despite Difficult Map
The Senate has become more competitive as Trump’s approval rating fell to record lows in new polls. Historically, the party in the White House suffers losses in the midterms when the president is unpopular, so Trump’s declining approval has been seen as a red flag for Republicans in competitive races.
The drop in Trump’s popularity has been attributed to increasing economic anxiety among voters amid a high cost of living. Soaring gas prices amid the Iran war, which has caused disruptions to the global oil supply, are also seen as a contributing factor.
Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that Democrats appear likely to gain a seat in North Carolina and keep the seats they currently hold. They have been effective in recruiting “strong candidates” in those more conservative states that have emerged as battlegrounds, he said.
“The main advantage Democratic candidates have is the unpopularity of the president, who seems to be campaigning largely in what are usually Republican-dominant states,” Farnsworth said.
The latest poll from YouGov and The Economist showed Trump’s net approval rating at -19 points, with 39 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving of his job performance. It surveyed 1,440 registered voters October 23-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
It found that only 33 percent of Americans are satisfied, compared to 60 percent who are dissatisfied, with the direction of the country. Democrats are also more motivated, polling suggested. Fifty-three percent of Democratic respondents said they are “more enthusiastic” to vote this year compared to other elections, to only 40 percent of Republicans.
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Closest Senate Races in 2026
Polling has been close in the seven battleground races for U.S. Senate. The Cook Political Report classifies all seven as toss-ups, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball considered Alaska and Michigan to be Leans Democratic.
Alaska
The Alaska race between Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola has become one of the most closely watched of the midterms, despite Trump winning the state by 14 points in 2024.
Democrats view Peltola as one of their top recruits of the cycle in a state that has shifted a bit in recent years. A leftward shift in cities like Anchorage and Fairbanks has narrowed the GOP’s margins, and the state has an independent streak.
The vast, rural state is difficult to poll, but recent surveys point to a close election.
The latest Data for Progress poll gave Peltola a 2-point lead on the final round of ranked-choice voting, 51 percent to 49 percent, among 675 likely voters October 8-16. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Peltola also led by 2 points in an InsiderAdvantage poll, 50 percent to 48 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters October 9-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) sued the state of Alaska in October over the presence of another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan. The DOJ said the “sole purpose” of Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy is to “benefit the Peltola campaign by reducing the number of votes for Senator Sullivan," the DOJ wrote in its lawsuit.
The lawsuit seeks to block the certification of the results if the incumbent does not win the election and if he would have won the election "had all votes cast for Dan J. Sullivan been cast instead for Senator Sullivan and Alaska's ranked-choice process played out accordingly."
Iowa
In Iowa, a former battleground that has shifted toward Republicans over the past decade, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is facing a competitive challenge from Democratic state Representative Josh Turek.
Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but the Senate race has become more competitive as the state faces the impact of tariffs and high diesel prices. Iowa was previously more competitive, backing former President Barack Obama twice before supporting Trump in all three of his runs.
Hinson led by fewer than 2 points in an InsiderAdvantage poll, 47 percent to 45.5 percent, among 1,200 likely voters October 21-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Turek, however, had a single-point lead in a YouGov poll, 47 percent to 46 percent, conducted from 2,245 likely voters October 6-12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Hinson and Turek have aimed to strike more of a centrist tone in the final stretch of the campaign. Hinson has called for an “immediate end” to the Iran war, saying that the state has been “squeezed” economically because of it. Turek, meanwhile, has embraced a more moderate position on social issues like transgender athletes.
Kansas
The Kansas race emerged as a late battleground as polls showed a closer-than-expected race between GOP Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Kansas has become more competitive as a farm state that could be particularly vulnerable to impacts of soaring diesel prices amid the Iran war.
Democrats also view Hamilton, a pastor, as a particularly strong candidate in the historically conservative state against Marshall, a physician who has faced criticism after The New York Times reported that he allegedly sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills.
Marshall led by a point in an InsiderAdvantage poll, 48 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters October 13-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A YouGov poll was more favorable to Hamilton, showing him up 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among 2,253 likely voters September 24-October 4. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Maine
Maine is expected to be one of the closest races of the midterms as longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate.
Collins has defied the partisan lean of the state, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024, in the past due to her personal popularity and moderate image. But Democrats believe she may be more vulnerable in the difficult national environment that 2026 presents for Republicans.
Democrats have faced a tumultuous season in Maine, despite hopes of flipping the seat. Jackson emerged as the nominee after Graham Platner, who won the primary in June, withdrew from the race following sexual assault allegations he has denied. Jackson emerged victorious from a Democratic convention over the summer.
Jackson held a 2-point lead over Collins, 49 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters in a new Marist University poll. It was conducted October 22-25 among 1,449 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
A Suffolk University poll gave Jackson a 2-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 500 Maine voters October 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Michigan
Michigan is the only toss-up seat held by a Democrat, retiring Senator Gary Peters. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed and GOP former Representative Mike Rogers are vying to succeed him in a swing state that narrowly went to Trump in 2024 after backing former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Republicans believe that El-Sayed’s progressive record could alienate moderate voters who are key in the state that has backed Trump in two of his three White House bids.
It’s a concern that some Democrats raised in the primaries, when El-Sayed defeated centrist Representative Haley Stevens, but the party hopes that the national environment will carry him across the finish line. Rogers has been courting moderate Democrats in hopes of pulling off a win in what appears to be a tougher year for the GOP.
El-Sayed was up a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent, over Rogers in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters October 21-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
The Democratic candidate had a 2-point lead, 50 percent to 48 percent, in a Marist University poll of 1,185 likely voters October 15-18. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Ohio
Ohio is another Midwest former battleground state where Democrats hope to make a comeback this year. Ohio backed Obama in 2008 and 2012 before shifting rightward in 2016 and voting for Trump in all three of his runs.
But former Senator Sherrod Brown is a rare Democrat who has found success in the Trump-era Ohio, winning in 2018 before losing in 2024. He is running against GOP Senator Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance.
The race has centered on economic issues like affordability, as well as the development of data centers. Polling has been close, but Brown has generally held a narrow lead.
A new Suffolk University poll showed Brown with a 3-point lead over Husted, 47 percent to 44 percent, among 500 likely voters October 21-26. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Brown was up 2.3 points in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters October 21-22. Some 46.7 percent said they would vote for Brown to 44.4 percent for Husted. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Texas
Democrats are hoping 2026 is the year they can flip Texas, which for decades has been one of the most conservative states in the nation.
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary and is set to face Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals, is viewed as particularly vulnerable despite millions of dollars of outside spending by Republican groups to boost his campaign.
Democrats have been let down in Texas before. They were increasingly optimistic about the state in the late 2010s due to growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their blue-trending suburbs. But the state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, in part due to the stronger national environment for Republicans and his inroads with Latino voters.
Polls have given Talarico an edge, but the race is still expected to be tight.
Talarico led by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters October 13-21. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A Fox News poll, conducted among 1,398 likely voters October 15-19 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, pointed to a tied race, with each candidate receiving support from 49 percent of respondents. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Dave Siminoff.
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