...
By Nick Mordowanec
Staff Writer
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill maintains a lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race for New Jersey governor, according to a new internal poll from the GOP candidate's campaign.
The survey results align with other recent polls, which show Sherrill consistently ahead of Ciattarelli by margins ranging from 5 to 20 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns via email for comment.
Read More
Susan Collins Dealt New Polling Blow5 min read
Joe Biden’s Associates Pleading Fifth Amendment Raises Red Flags6 min read
Supreme Court May Weaken 1965 Voting Rights Act Further7 min read
Why It Matters
New Jersey's gubernatorial race is one of only two such national contests in 2025, drawing national attention as a bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is term limited, providing both parties the opportunity to view the race as a crucial test of their platforms—and of President Donald Trump's influence in the region.
Though New Jersey has reliably supported Democrats in statewide races, gains for the Republican Party and shifting voter attitudes on economic issues have narrowed margins. Competition over cost of living, taxes and the potential impact of national political figures heighten the significance of this year's election.
...
What To Know
The most recent internal survey conducted for a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC and published by the New Jersey Globe showed Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli by 5 percentage points—47 percent to 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided.
The poll, conducted by Kellyanne Conway for the Change NJ super PAC, attempted to mirror past general election turnout demographics. The pollsters also found that more than half of respondents (53 percent) believe New Jersey is on the wrong track and 52 percent want "major change."
A separate Rutgers-Eagleton poll released in early July found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 20 points—51 percent to 31 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, told Newsweek via phone on Thursday that the average New Jersey voter likely isn't paying much attention to the race yet.
She expects enthusiasm on both sides to ramp up following Labor Day.
"I think inevitably this race is going to tighten," Koning said. "It's just a matter of when and also, this race is going to be competitive no matter what margin we may be seeing. In our polling from a month or so ago we show that there is a notable number of those who are undecided....Likely voter models are a best educated guess. Nobody knows this unknown population of who is going to turn out by Election Day."
The Rutgers poll found Sherrill performing particularly well on issues of cost of living and affordability, though her advantage on taxes diminished, with just a 5-point edge among registered voters.
Independents, who often swing statewide races, broke for Sherrill 45 percent to 28 percent (or 51 to 34 percent when leaners were included), but up to one-fifth of the group remained undecided. The poll's methodology showed Sherrill viewed as moderate or somewhat liberal by most voters, while Ciattarelli was seen as more conservative.
While 45 percent of voters trust Sherrill to handle cost of living, 29 percent favor Ciattarelli, according to Rutgers polling. On taxes, voters went 39 percent for Sherrill and 34 percent for Ciattarelli, with the remainder undecided or distrustful of both.
"'Affordability' is definitely the buzzword of this election within New Jersey and I'd like to think that New Jersey has a unique brand of of politics that still has many issues at the state level that are unique to the Garden State," Koning said. "I think affordability is an umbrella term [for] many of these issues that New Jerseyans have perennially been concerned about, first and foremost taxes and property taxes.
"We have the highest property taxes in the country, and New Jerseyans have been telling us in our 50-plus years of polling that that's typically their No. 1 problem. In our most recent poll, taxes were followed by cost of living and affordability."
Other issues are more run-of-the-mill come election time, including the broader economy, jobs, health care and child care. While Ciattarelli will focus heavily on taxes, a particularly salient issue for Republicans, Sherill will do the same for child care and housing affordability, which have been linked to Democratic ideals.
There is one figure that may ultimately sway the New Jersey race: Trump.
Koning said that in their pre-primary polling, half of Republican respondents said that an endorsement for Republican candidate by Trump would make them more likely to vote. Half said it wouldn't make a difference.
But it may also galvanize anti-Trump voters, including independents, against Ciattarelli, whom she said started to somewhat disavow and distance himself from Trump in his 2021 race against Murphy, homing in more on kitchen-table issues like the economy and taxes. It made the race a lot closer in the end, with Murphy winning by about 3 percentage points.
"President Donald Trump is going to loom very large over the election," Koning said. "As of right now, that doesn't necessarily seem to be working in Ciattarelli's favor. We don't know if that's going to change. Obviously, the impact of the national political landscape over the next several months—particularly the economy, the impact of the statewide political landscape, the impact of regional politics with the New York City mayoral race—all of that could have an influence on the New Jersey governor's race.
"But obviously [Trump] seems first and foremost kind of like the biggest influence as of right now, and it does not seem to necessarily be a plus-1 for the Republican side."
Polling conducted by American Principles Project in June showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli, 50 percent to 43 percent, among 400 likely voters, consistent with other surveys showing single to low double-digit advantages for the Democrat.
A SurveyUSA poll recording Sherrill at 51 percent and Ciattarelli at 38 percent, with a significant percentage of voters either undecided or supporting other candidates.
What People Are Saying
The Ciattarelli campaign told Newsweek in June: "Make no mistake that this is a 'CHANGE' election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate. A majority of New Jersey voters (54 percent) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33 percent believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72 percent to 14 percent margin among those wrong-track voters, and an even stronger 87 percent to 6 percent among voters who want a governor who will 'shake up Trenton.'"
What Happens Next
The New Jersey gubernatorial election will be held on November 4. Both campaigns are expected to intensify voter outreach and messaging on key economic issues as Election Day approaches. A significant undecided voter bloc and the influence of national politics will continue to drive developments in the final months of the campaign.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines