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By Anna Commander
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A new poll shows Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya locked in a close race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, with Flanagan holding a narrow 44 percent to 42 percent advantage among likely voters. The two-point gap puts the candidates within a statistical tie, underscoring how competitive the contest could become as the November midterms approach.
The poll, conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2 among 1,201 likely voters, also found 4 percent supporting other candidates, while 2 percent said someone else and 8 percent were not sure. The survey comes shortly after both candidates secured their party nominations last month, setting up a general election contest for the seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent.
The League of American Workers is not formally affiliated with the Republican Party, but it is a conservative advocacy organization led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes.
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Meanwhile, midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and Senate, and The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as likely Democrat. Former Vice President Kamala Harris also won the state by roughly 4 points in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump.
Flanagan campaign spokesperson Lexi Byler told Newsweek via email on Tuesday when reached for comment about the new poll, "Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone. Tafoya even told Minnesotans to just 'keep a stiff upper lip' with the higher prices due to Trump’s illegal war in Iran and praised the One Big Beautiful Bill that is ripping health care away from hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans."
"Michele Tafoya is fighting for what Trump wants, Peggy Flanagan is fighting for what working families need – Minnesotans know that and it’s why they will choose Peggy Flanagan in November," the statement concluded.
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Newsweek reached out to Tafoya's campaign via email on Tuesday for comment, and while she did not respond before publication time, she responded to the poll on X, saying, "Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility. Peggy Flanagan is the sitting lieutenant governor while criminals were stealing billions from Minnesota taxpayers. She doesn’t get to walk away from that record. Minnesotans deserve accountability. They deserve leadership. And they deserve better. This race is wide open. Let’s win it!"
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What To Know
Flanagan, Minnesota's lieutenant governor, entered the general election as the Democratic nominee after defeating Representative Angie Craig in the party's primary. Flanagan’s defeat of Craig marked a victory for the Democratic Party’s more progressive wing, which has seen several candidates prevail in recent primaries. Flanagan was considered the more progressive candidate in the contest and received backing from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, making the race another example of the ongoing divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.
Tafoya, a former longtime NFL sideline reporter, won the Republican nomination and is seeking to turn her name recognition and political outsider profile into a statewide victory. The race has drawn national attention as Republicans look to make gains in Minnesota, even though Democrats have maintained a strong statewide advantage in recent elections.
The latest numbers are particularly notable because earlier polling also showed Flanagan ahead, although by a somewhat larger margin. The new survey suggests Tafoya may have narrowed the gap as the general election campaign gets underway. Still, a two-point advantage is not enough to establish a clear favorite, particularly with two months remaining before Election Day.
According to the poll, Flanagan has more of the Gen-Z, Millennial, female, Black and Hispanic vote. Tafoya has more support from those age 45-years-old and up, men, and white likely voters. Both have 37 percent of the independent vote.
Among registered voters Flanagan also has a 2-point lead over Tafoya with 40 percent to 38 percent. That questioned polled 1,494 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
Tafoya has a 34 percent favorable rating compared to a 30 percent unfavorable rating, the poll shows, while 36 percent have no opinion. Flanagan's favorability rating is 39 percent compared to a 34 percent unfavorable rating and 28 percent have no opinion.
The survey also asked respondents about Flanagan's position on gender transitions for minors and their potential support. No similar or direct policy question was asked about Tafoya.
For now, the latest poll points to a race that could be competitive, with Flanagan and Tafoya separated by just two percentage points and both campaigns facing an opportunity to persuade the relatively small share of voters who have yet to settle on a candidate.
What Prediction Markets Show
According to Kalshi on Monday afternoon, Flanagan has a 90.5 percent chance of winning to Tafoya's 9.5 percent chance.
Polymarket shows a similar finding on Monday afternoon, with Flanagan having a 94 percent chance to Tafoya's 8 percent.
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Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas
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