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By Andrew Stanton
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Republican Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate this week following a monthslong absence, as Democrat Charles Booker seeks to defeat Republican Representative Andy Barr to flip the seat in the traditionally conservative state.
McConnell suffered a fall at his Washington, D.C., home in June that left him briefly unconscious. The monthslong absence, with few updates that followed, drew scrutiny and calls for greater transparency into the health of the 84-year-old Republican leader. The incident comes amid broader debate about aging leaders in both political parties.
Key Takeaways
- Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate on Monday after a three-month long absence following the June 14 fall. His absence fueled questions about transparency from his office, which offered limited details about the 84-year-old senator's health.
- McConnell, who served as the Republican Senate leader, is not running for reelection in November.
- Kentucky is a solidly Republican state that gave President Donald Trump large victories in each of his three presidential runs. Barr is viewed as the favorite over Booker in polls and prediction markets, even as Trump's declining national approval rating drives Democrats' hopes that they could expand the battleground in November.
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What to Know About the Race to Replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate
McConnell is not running for reelection, and his current term ends in January 2027. The Bluegrass State has established a reputation as a solidly Republican state, so the GOP is forecast to have an advantage this year, and the state is not ordinarily viewed as competitive.
But Democrats are hoping to expand the battleground as President Donald Trump’s approval has reached new lows amid economic concerns, ongoing inflation and soaring gas prices during the Iran war.
Still, Kentucky voted for Trump by nearly 31 points in 2024, making it a tough lift for Democrats.
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Barr was first elected to Congress in 2012. He represents a light-red district based around Lexington, its suburbs and more rural areas of Central Kentucky. Booker is a former state representative. He ran in the 2020 and 2022 Senate races, losing the 2020 primary to Amy McGrath. He won the primary in 2022 but lost the general election to Republican Senator Rand Paul.
Newsweek reached out to the Barr and Booker campaigns for comment via email.
Latest Polls, Odds in the Race to Replace Mitch McConnell
Polling on the race is limited, but one internal Democratic poll suggested a closer-than-expected race given how conservative the state is.
The Global Strategy Group showed Barr with a 9-point lead against Booker, 49 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from August 24 to 27, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was first reported by Lexington-based news station WDKY.
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However, independent polling, generally seen as more reliable than internal polls, has not backed up its findings, leaving uncertainty over the race.
Barr is heavily favored in prediction markets, having a 95 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 96 percent chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday afternoon.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Kamau Marshall, general consultant and chief strategist for the Booker campaign, told Newsweek that Booker has "a real pathway to victory."
"Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't. Barr has every advantage of incumbency, money, and party infrastructure, yet he has not put this race away, as he is now fighting to hold his own political base," he said.
Marshall also said prediction markets "measure wagers, not voters."
"Kentucky is not a casino, and this election is not a betting slip," he added.
Alex Bellizzi, communications director for Barr's campaign, told Newsweek that Booker is "the most extreme candidate in the history of Kentucky."
"He will defund police, abolish the border, and destroy Kentucky’s energy industry. In 49 days, Charles Booker will become a three-time loser. Andy Barr will win for Kentucky common sense in November," Bellizzi said.
When Is Mitch McConnell Retiring?
McConnell’s term ends in January 2027.
Mitch McConnell Returns to Senate
McConnell returned to the Senate on September 14 after about three months out of work following his hospitalization. In a statement, the Kentucky Republican said he was continuing physical therapy and was not yet "100 percent," but planned to return for important votes.
"My recovery has been a long and often frustrating process, and the lingering effects of childhood polio haven’t made it any easier. I’m still not quite back to 100%, but I’ve assured Leader Thune that, as I continue with physical therapy on the advice of my doctors, I will do my best to be present for tough votes when our Conference needs me," he wrote.
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Mitch McConnell Absence: A Timeline
- June 11: McConnell cast his last vote in the Senate before his absence.
- June 14: McConnell fell at his Washington, D.C., home and was hospitalized.
- July 11: Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, called on McConnell to provide an update on his health.
- July 12: McConnell issued a statement addressing his health, writing that he would "keep working hard to get back on the Senate floor as soon as possible."
- August 6: McConnell was discharged from the rehabilitation center and returned home to continue therapy.
- August 16: Beshear told CBS News’ Face the Nation he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from McConnell, calling for the senator to call "into this show for two minutes, or Fox News for two minutes, or do a video for two minutes to the people he's supposed to serve."
- September 14: McConnell returned to the U.S. Senate.
What Happens Next
Barr remains favored in the Kentucky Senate race according to forecasts like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which classify the race as being safe for Republicans. Both candidates will spend the coming weeks and months making their cases to voters in the Bluegrass State.
Overall, the race is not expected to decide control of the Senate, which remains competitive for both parties. Democrats had a 54 percent chance of winning the Senate on Kalshi and a 59 percent chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday. The Cook Political Report classifies races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas as toss ups that could determine control of the Senate.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenna deJong and Sam Wilson.
Update 9/16/26, 9:25 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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