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By Jeff Edelstein
Sports Betting Writer and Editor
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Full slate of action Tuesday, and we're coming off another 3-0 sweep Monday, so let's dive right in with a pair of moneylines and a team over I love.
Play 1: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros -- Astros moneyline (even) ESPN BET
Going right back to the 'Stros today after they took us home at -140 odds yesterday. Today looks almost equally as good, and this time the odds are even.
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The Astros are sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound, and his pitching performance thus far in his rookie year can be summed up thusly: Perfectly cooked al dente pasta that is immediately dropped on the floor.
Consider: A teensy 26.8% hard hit rate, matched with an equally tiny 6.6% barrel rate. He's striking out a quarter of the batters he faces. So far, so good.
But ... baserunners have been killing him. An 11.4% walk rate, and a ridiculous .349 BABIP.
So which Arrighetti will the Blue Jays be dining on this evening? I'm leaning on the one that showed up in his last outing against the Rockies, where he struck out 10, walked none, and scattered three hits over seven innings.
Bottom line is the Blue Jays offense is not that good, and as long as Arrighetti keeps his control intact, he should be able to get through six solid innings or so.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Jose Berrios takes the hill for the Jays and faces a fearsome foursome at the top of the order in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz, all of whom hit righties well and all of whom do well against Berrios' main pitch, the sinker.
I don't expect a lot of runs in Toronto, and I do expect the Astros to eke one out.
Play 2: Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels -- Angels moneyline (-108) FanDuel
I absolutely love the Angels tonight in Oakland.
On the mound for the Halos is Jose Soriano, coming off the 15-day injured list with an abdominal infection. It's not expected to mess with his pitch count, and Soriano matches up about as well as any pitcher has ever matched up against an opposing lineup.
And while the above might sound like so much hyperbole, consider: Soriano is a sinkerballer who gets ground balls like nobody's business to the tune of 60%. The projected A's lineup doesn't have a single hitter who hits the ball in the air over 35% against righties, and against sinkerballs? Oh boy. In 424 plate appearances, Oakland's projected lineup hits the ball on the ground at a 56% rate, with an 18.4% fly ball rate.
Of course, this game is being played in the cavernous environs of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, so even if they get the ball in the air -- spoiler alert: they won't -- it's probably not traveling terribly far.
This is a pristine matchup for Soriano.
Meanwhile, the Angels face off against Mitch Spence, who's fine enough but struggles against lefties, and, on top of it, his main pitch -- the cutter -- is a pitch no less than four Angels hitters have ISOs over .300 against.
I expect a low-scoring affair, but -- unless Soriano is weakened from his infection -- I cannot see a way for the A's to get anything going.
Play 3: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -- Dodgers over 4.5 runs (-130) DraftKings
I mean, I think Shohei Ohtani will take care of this number all by himself. Only half-kidding.
The Dodgers are facing righty Ryne Nelson, who is giving up an ISO of .205 and a wOBA of .377 against opposing hitters this year. This is not a fluke, as his numbers last year were .228 and .364, respectively.
To give some idea of those numbers, Freddie Freeman -- who Nelson will be facing tonight -- has a .206 ISO and .384 wOBA on the year. So basically, every batter turns into Freeman when facing Nelson.
And Freeman, for the record, is even better against 4-seam fastballs, which Nelson throws half the time, to the tune of a .281 ISO and .406.
Oh, and Ohtani against 4-seamers? A .509 ISO and a .566 wOBA. To give some idea of those numbers, consider Barry Bonds in his record-setting 2001 season had a .536 ISO and .537 wOBA.
So yes. Ohtani might hit the over all by his lonesome. Freeman will help. As will Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages and Jason Heyward. Pretty sure you can throw the ghost of Duke Snider in the lineup and the Dodgers would still hit the over tonight.
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