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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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Wednesdays in MLB are fun because they always feature a ton of day games. Today's MLB betting slate is no different, with multiple games starting shortly after noon Eastern.
So, with that thought in mind, let's get right into our favorite MLB home run picks for the day.
Play 1: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+325) BetMGM
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
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Alvarez has only hit one home run since the All-Star break, but a lot of his stats look very good, so the guess here is that he is going to start hitting home runs soon. This has admittedly been a down year for Alvarez when you compare his power numbers to years past, with an ISO rate on the year of .234, which is the lowest of his entire career. The way he has been hitting the ball lately, though, offers signs that he is going to come out of that slump.
Since July 19, he is hitting .325 with a .550 slugging, .407 wOBA and .950 OPS, which are all very good numbers. His barrel rate is 15.6% and his HardHit rate is 53.1%, which would both be top-15 in MLB if extrapolated out to a full season. He has not had an extra base hit in a week, but he has a combined four hits in his last four games, with a HardHit in each of his last four games as well. As for today, he is going up against a pitcher that he should be able to hit hard.
Granted, it has been a small sample size for Jake Woodford, but he has been awful throughout his major league career. This year, in 8.1 innings, he has given up two home runs, with a barrel rate of 9.1%, HardHit rate of 48.5%, average exit velocity of 92.7MPH and launch angle of 19 degrees. Last year, in 47.2 innings for the Cardinals, he had a similarly bad year, allowing a barrel rate of 11.3%, HardHit rate of 49.4% and average exit velocity of 92.1MPH. His pitch-mix also lines up perfectly for Yordan, who crushes sinkers, which is Woodford's most common pitch thrown.
Play 2: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+375) BetMGM
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 12:10 p.m. ET
Lowe has one of the best matchups you can imagine against Roddery Munoz of the Marlins. Munoz recently had a stretch where it looked like he might not be the worst home run pitcher in MLB. He did not allow a home run in three straight starts from July 5-20, but his last start, on July 25, he reverted back to form and gave up three home runs to the Orioles.
Of all pitchers in MLB who have thrown at least 60 innings, Munoz has the worst HR/9 by far, with a gross HR/9 of 2.66. He allows the highest barrel rate in MLB at 14.1% and the 12th-worst HardHit rate of 43.8%.
He is also significantly worse against left-handed hitters such as Lowe. He has seen 20 fewer at-bats against lefties than righties, but has given up 12 of his 18 home runs to lefties. His batting average allowed goes from .189 against RHH to .295 against LHH; slugging from .278 to .392; and wOBA from .286 to .449. All four of his line-drive, fly-ball, pull and HardHit rates are higher against LHH.
Lowe, meanwhile, has been great all year and has still been hitting the ball well recently. On the entire year, he has an ISO rate of .262 and a barrel rate of 15.5%, making him one of the rare batters with a season-long ISO rate and barrel rate that are both in the "excellent" category as defined by FanGraphs. Since July 1, his ISO rate is .329 and his barrel rate is 17.5%. Despite not hitting a home run in his last four games, he has four doubles in that stretch, so he has still been hitting the ball hard. Today, he takes one yard.
Play 3: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+450) FanDuel
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40 p.m. ET
We went with Marte yesterday and he did not come through for us, but we're riding with him again today, as he once again has a great matchup. As for yesterday, even though he did not hit a home run, he still had two HardHits in his three plate appearances, with an average exit velocity of 96.9MPH. He got taken out early because the Diamondbacks went up by 11 in the blink of an eye, which was a bummer, but it also means that he has a great opportunity to make it up to us today.
He has hit seven home runs in the month of July, giving him an ISO rate of .275 and a barrel rate of 13%. Today, he is going up against a left-handed pitcher in MacKenzie Gore, and he absolutely crushes lefties. He has 120 fewer plate appearances against lefties this season, but has still hit 14 of his 24 home runs against LHP. His ISO rate against LHP is .336, which would only be behind Aaron Judge if extrapolated out to all qualified batters.
Gore is a good pitcher for the Nats, but his pitch-mix lines up perfectly with all of the pitches that Marte crushes. He throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time, a curveball 19% of the time, and a slider 16.6% of the time. Those three account for over 90% of his pitches. Marte has an ISO rate of .256 against 4-seam fastballs and an ISO rate of 1.300 against curveballs. The latter sounds absurd, but he has only seen 98 curveballs, and in those 98 pitches, he has four home runs and one double, hitting .600 overall. Against sliders, he has an ISO rate of .259. There is no hiding against him, so I think Marte takes him yard.
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