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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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Todays MLB betting slate is one of the lightest slates you will see with only three games scheduled for today, Monday July 1. With that said, that did not stop us from finding our two favorite player props, so let's get right into it.
Play 1: Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+300) FanDuel
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:40PM ET
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Hoskins has only hit two home runs in the month of June, so there is definitely some risk with this one, but the game is being played at Coors Field and he is going up against one of the worst pitchers in MLB so if there was ever a chance for him to break out of his slump it would be tonight. The reason Hoskins is a great bet to go yard tonight is he has the best combination of fly-ball rate/launch angle for home runs, while he is also one of the best batters on the Brewers at hitting fastballs, which we'll get into in a moment.
On the year, Hoskins has a 49% fly-ball rate, (10th-highest in MLB) and an average launch angle of 20 degrees (12th-highest in MLB). So he does a good job getting the ball in the air, which at Coors Field is half the battle. While his power numbers admittedly are not what we typically look for, he does have a solid barrel rate of 12.8%, which ranks 30th in the MLB and is still in the "great" category according to FanGraphs.
Another big reason to believe in Hoskins is the pitching matchup against Austin Gomber of the Rockies, who is not a great pitcher. He allows a barrel rate of 10.6% (fifth-worst in MLB), an average exit velocity of 89.9MPH (15th-worst in MLB), a fly ball rate of 40.4% (25th in MLB) and a hard hit rate on batted balls of 33.8% (12th-worst in MLB). Additionally, he throws a 4 seam fastball over 40% of the time, while Hoskins has an ISO rate of .293 specifically on 4-seam fastballs. That is technically his second-best pitch in terms of ISO rate, but his best pitch has a tiny sample size of 18 at-bats whereas he has seen over 300 4-seam fastballs.
Play 2: Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+410) BetRivers
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:40PM ET
Now for our second home run prediction of the day, this time going with a player on the other team, Ryan McMahon of the Rockies. He has the benefit of going up against Bryse Wilson of the Brewers, who is another pitcher that is definitely mashable. Wilson has given up 12 home runs on the year, which is already a bad number considering he has not pitched a ton of innings, and seven of those 12 have come against left-handed hitters despite the fact that he has seen fewer lefty bats than righty bats.
His fly ball rate specifically against LHH is 47.4% (sixth-worst in MLB) and his hard hit rate allowed is 42.7% (worst in MLB). He also allows the 20th-ranked launch angle in MLB as well. McMahon is similar to Hoskins in that his power numbers won't wow you, but he does hit the ball hard and has solid contact.
His barrel rate is 12.7% which is in the "great" category, and he has a hard hit rate of 52.4% (13th-highest in MLB), and an average exit velocity of 93.5MPH, which is the ninth-best in the MLB. He admittedly does not have the launch angle and fly ball rate that you typically look for, so this could be a good opportunity to take his total bases as well
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