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By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
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Just days into his tenure of Iran's highest office, reports have mounted that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father and predecessor, along with other family members, at the start of an ongoing war against the Islamic Republic.
Rather than shorten Khamenei's rule in the immediate term, however, his status may further entrench a long-established elusive nature that could ultimately contribute to his survival in the face of U.S. and Israeli threats.
"His primary concern right now is staying alive, so he will continue to stay out of the public eye, especially if reports that he is injured are true," Alan Eyre, a former U.S. State Department expert on Iran now serving as distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Newsweek.
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That does not necessarily mean Khamenei would remain in the shadows as questions surround the future fate of the exalted supreme leader's office still, at least officially, at the helm of the Islamic Republic founded in 1979 by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who was succeeded upon his death a decade later by Khamenei's father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"Once the war ends, if he is still alive, it is likely he will significantly increase his public profile," Eyre said. "His death would not mean the end of the 'Velayat-e Faqih' system of governance, although as a practical matter the theological underpinning of this system have eroded greatly since the time of Khomeini, as Iran has become less of a theocracy and more of a military-security state."
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The Wounded Leader
Details surrounding Khamenei's status remain unclear, with information surfacing from a mix of official and non-official channels.
Iran's state-run Islamic Republic News Agency described Khamenei as a "wounded" veteran of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28. An anonymous source cited by The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday said that Khamenei had sustained minor injuries and continued to function, an account similar to one attributed to unnamed Iranian officials to Reuters on Wednesday.
Unnamed Iranian officials cited by The New York Times on Wednesday said that Khamenei had sustained injuries to his legs and was sheltering out of the public eye in a bid to keep him out of further harm's way. The same report cited unnamed Israeli officials offering a similar assessment on the nature of Khamenei's wounds, as gathered by Israel's defense establishment.
Speaking to The Guardian on Wednesday, Iranian Ambassador to Cyprus Alireza Salarian confirmed his understanding that Khamenei was injured in the same strikes that killed his father—and reportedly his mother, sister, wife, daughter and other family members—and had emerged with wounds to his hand and legs.
Asked why Khamenei had yet to make a public appearance, Salarian was quoted as saying, “I don’t think he is comfortable [in any condition] to give a speech.”
Also on Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's son, Yousef, said he, too, had "heard news that Mr Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured" and that he is now "safe and sound," according to a post on his official Telegram channel.
Out of the Spotlight
While now the center of attention in the Islamic Republic, Khamenei's evasive style long precedes his current state.
While his father often used the supreme leader platform to make public appearances and frequently delivered speeches on stage and through social media, the younger Khamenei largely focuses on religious scholarship and reportedly cultivating influence within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with whom he served during the 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War, throughout much of which his father served as president.
The IRGC factor may prove pivotal, as the elite military group has established a vast presence across various sectors of Iranian society in recent years, including security, politics, and economics. Much of the IRGC's top leadership has been killed, particularly during the 12-Day War launched by Israel last June, with further casualties mounting in the current campaign, though it continues to play a leading part in the war effort.
The IRGC's Basij paramilitary branch, with which Khamenei has most often been associated, retains a powerful internal security network that was activated to crack down on nationwide protests and unrest that consumed the country in January and remains a key element in maintaining order during the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
"What's new today is that they have a new leader with probably very close relations with the IRGC, but he didn't hold any official position inside Iran," Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former Iran watched for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), told Newsweek.
"He mostly acted behind the scenes, and so he will certainly need the advice and the support of the Revolutionary Guards, and there is no doubt that they might exploit that to become even more influential in the decision making in Iran," Zimmt said. "By the way, my sense is that they already played a major role in his decision to nominate as a leader."
Staying Alive
Khamenei's selection as supreme leader has drawn opposition from both the U.S. and Israel, which, despite avoiding explicitly tying their campaign to regime change objectives, have called for the end of the Islamic Republic through another popular uprising.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced his displeasure with the choice of Khamenei in recent days and has indicated the White House should have a say on who leads Iran. At the same time, Trump has declined to divulge whether or not he would now go after the new supreme leader.
Israeli officials have been more forthcoming with their willingness to strike Khamenei. As the 88-member Assembly of Experts convened to confirm Khamenei on Sunday, the IDF warned in a Persian-language statement that "the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor."
Asked by CNN on Tuesday if Khamenei was considered a target, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar expressed a "wait-and-see" approach, though he suggested that the decision was linked to expectations that the new supreme leader would continue "the very extremist and mad policies of his father."
Zimmt argued that Khamenei's survival would rest on both whether or not U.S. and Israeli leadership ultimately choose to pursue him as well as "whether we are capable of doing that, because it's very clear that, unlike his father, who might have taken into consideration the possibility that he might be targeted—but evidently, he didn't take that too seriously—he is necessarily going to take that much more seriously."
"From my point of view, the more important question is not whether he's going to survive the war or not, which is, of course, an important question by itself, but what will happen if he does survive the war, because it's very clear that he presents no real change from his father," Zimmt said. "Perhaps on the contrary, he might be even more, more hardline."
"He might take risks with which his father didn't want to take, for example, the nuclear issue," Zimmt added. "His contacts and affiliation with the Revolutionary Guards, I think, is something which should very much bother us, and not just us, but also the Iranian people and the region, but this is the choice the Iranian regime made."
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