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By Mandy Taheri
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A low-pressure disturbance is expected to bring rain and possible flash flooding to parts of Florida in the coming days, though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it has a low chance of further development.
Why It Matters
The system comes nearly a week after deadly flash floods slammed Texas, taking the lives of at least 129 people, with more than 170 still missing, according to the Associated Press. Fast-moving floodwater surged 26 feet along the Guadalupe River before dawn on July 4, sweeping away homes and vehicles in Texas Hill Country.
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Flooding is the second deadliest weather hazard in the United States after extreme heat, with most fatalities occurring when vehicles are swept away by rising waters.
What To Know
In a Sunday morning update, NHC noted that a disturbance in the Gulf is expected to head towards Florida in the coming days.
"A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two and then move westward across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday," the NHC forecast states.
The disturbance is forecast to bring "heavy rainfall," which may "produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the mid to late portion of this week."
The center gives the system a low chance of developing into a cyclone—near zero over the next 48 hours and 20 percent within seven days.
"Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week," the NHC weather discussion states.
If the system strengthens into a named storm, it would be called Dexter, following Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed off the Atlantic coast and made landfall in South Carolina earlier this month.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be "above-normal."
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What People Are Saying
FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime said: "You'll note that little cinnamon bun swirl (on forecast model charts) that moved kind of right across the (Florida) Peninsula and into the Gulf. It's that mid-level spin right there that we're tracking that could—let me emphasize, could—by the time we get to this upcoming midweek, have some sort of tropical characteristics with it."
National Weather Service (NWS) in Corpus Christi, Texas, wrote in an X, formerly Twitter, post on Sunday morning: "NHC is monitoring an area across the offshore waters of FL. Area of low pressure could move west across the Florida Peninsula, toward the east and north central Gulf. There is a low (20%) chance of development by mid to late next week. Impacts across S TX are not expected."
What Happens Next?
Forecasters will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the system develops.
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