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By Hugh Cameron
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New data shows that prices are continuing to rise in the United States, despite President Donald Trump's claim that "inflation is stopped."
In a speech at the White House on Wednesday, Trump declared that his administration was "bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast."
But on Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, revealing that the 12-month rate of inflation stood at 2.7 percent. This does however mark a slowdown from three percent in September and 2.9 percent in August.
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Core inflation—excluding the volatile food and energy categories—also slowed to 2.6 percent from three percent in September, reaching its lowest rate since March 2021.
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Why It Matters
The November figures were better than anticipated—analysts forecasted annual inflation to tick up to 3.1 percent with the core rate remaining flat—and compared to 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent respectively when Trump returned to office in January.
However, the report indicates that price increases—rather than prices themselves—are dropping, and headline inflation remains elevated compared to the Federal Reserve’s long-term two percent target.
Nevertheless, experts have interpreted the data as a step in the right direction, and a much-needed sign of improvement given prevalent concerns around the health of the labor market and wider U.S. economy.
What To Know
Within the 2.7 percent rate of inflation, the energy index rose 4.2 percent over the 12 months ending in November; the food index climbed 2.6 percent; electricity prices were up 6.9 percent; and gas utility costs increased 9.1 percent.
Some categories saw prices fall on an annual basis, including dairy and related products (-1.6 percent), fresh fruit and vegetables (-0.2 percent), and eggs (-13.2 percent).
However, coffee and beef costs were up significantly over the past twelve months given recent supply issues, rising 18.8 percent and 15.8 percent respectively.
Stock futures rose following the encouraging report, according to CNBC, likely on investor hopes that the reading will increase the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at either its January or March meetings.
No figures were released by the BLS for October due to data collection issues caused by the government shutdown. As a result, November's report also did not include an estimate of month-over-month changes.
What People Are Saying
President Trump said during his address on Wednesday: "We’re putting America first, and we are making America great again. Very simple. We are making America great again. Tonight, after 11 months, our border is secure, inflation is stopped, wages are up, prices are down, our nation is strong, America is respected, and our country is back, stronger than ever before. We’re poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on X: "Just as President Trump told Americans last night: inflation continues to fall, wages continue to rise, and America is trending towards a historic economic boom."
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek: “Today’s expectation-beating inflation report is the latest proof that President Trump’s robust policy agenda continues to pay off. In the new year, the Trump administration will continue to focus on ending Joe Biden’s affordability crisis and restoring the working-class prosperity that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term.”
Economist Kenneth Rogoff told CNN about the BLS report: "I was surprised. It was a better number than anyone was expecting. Look, inflation has been very high. It stayed high. It’s not been coming down. But, you know, people were expecting it to be above 3 percent. It was well below 3 percent. I mean, I think the president will take this as good news, the investors will think that interest rates will get cut more. So, yeah, it was a positive."
Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, told Newsweek: "The latest CPI numbers are encouraging for the Federal Reserve, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already warned against reading too much into the latest data due to distortions from the shutdown.
"The central bank will remain most vigilant about the labor market, as a continuation of real wage growth will allow households to fully recover from the hit to their purchasing power since the pandemic."
Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said of the release: "On face value, fears of a tariff-induced spike in US inflation are so far proving to be almost entirely unfounded following one of the largest misses in a CPI report in recent memory. We don’t think that the Fed will be rushing to judgement just yet for two reasons: firstly, given that shutdown distortions may have artificially skewed the data and secondly, considering that we are still not close to seeing the full impact of the tariffs on consumer prices."
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the press conference last week: "We're going to get data, but we're going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye by the time of the January meeting, notwithstanding that we will have a lot of the December data by the time of the January. So, we expect to see a lot more, but I'm just saying that the—what we get for, for example, CPI or for the, you know, household survey, we're gonna look—we're going to look at that really carefully and understand that it may be distorted by very technical factors."
What Happens Next
As economists have noted, the reading shows inflation slowly approaching the Fed's long-term target, and may alter its calculus in deciding on a rate cut at its upcoming meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a January cut have risen slightly following the report, though most bets are still on the central bank holding rates steady. Predictions of a March cut—either of 25- or 50-basis-points—have also increased, and are currently at around 56 percent.
Update 12/18/25 11:46 a.m. ET: This article was updated with a response from the White House.
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