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By Alex J. Rouhandeh
National Political Correspondent
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Residents of New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District will hit the polls Thursday to fill the House seat vacated Mikie Sherrill after her successful bid for the governor's mansion, and if recent special election trends continue, it will be an uphill climb for Republicans.
Official data on the race is sparse, but polling sponsored by the Democratic candidate Analilia Mejia had her up 17 points over her Republican opponent Joe Hathaway. In line with those results, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the race as “Solid D.”
Currently, Republicans hold the majority in the House with 218 seats, plus one independent who caucuses with them. Democrats hold 213 seats. Four seats are vacant—two that were most recently held by Republicans, and two most recently held by Democrats, including Sherrill's seat. If Mejia wins, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson would see his narrow majority slip even further, only allowing the loss of two GOP votes to pass party-line legislation.
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Beyond changing congressional math, however, the outcome of the race is also likely to offer information to Republican and Democratic lawmakers alike as they shift their focus toward reelection as the November midterms near. For Republicans defending battleground seats, special election results may show a need to create distance from President Donald Trump.
“I'm not going to Washington to be a rubber stamp for anybody, including the president,” Hathaway said. “For us, this race has been from the beginning about bringing common sense, practical leadership, focused on the local level, bringing that mayor's mindset that I've been able to build in Randolph down to Washington.”
Pointing to his experience as a mayor, Hathaway emphasized local issues in a conversation with Newsweek, speaking about a focus on housing and property development. He also took aim at the president for slashing funding that could result in job losses at Picatinny Arsenal, a military base and key employer in the district, and hit Trump over raising tariffs and ending certain Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Hathaway also said he does not think Trump has committed an impeachable offense. In a district that houses over 61,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, that position could spell trouble, as recent polling suggests up to 84 percent of Democrats want lawmakers to make that move.
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“President Trump is coming up a lot for voters, and every single one of his antics drives up both interest in what's going on and how to course correct,” Mejia told Newsweek. “As a result, when we're knocking on doors, we're talking about how voting for me is a counterbalance to that.”
Despite some Democrats shifting away from the issue following Vice President Kamala Harris’ failed 2024 presidential campaign, protecting democracy remains a top focus for those in New Jersey’s 11th District, Mejia said. A former organizer and Department of Labor employee, Mejia has run her campaign with a grassroots emphasis, holding informational events in the community focused on educating around authoritarianism and how to defend against it.
Given the partisan tilt of the area, Mejia’s most difficult challenge might have been the February 5 Democratic Primary. She ran as a progressive, securing endorsements from Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The Israel-Palestine conflict served as a key differentiator in that primary, and Mejia won despite being the only candidate to label Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide. Hathaway has seized on this issue and hit Mejia over her progressive bona fides.
“You have someone who is running on anti-law enforcement, antisemitic, socialist economic policies embraced by the Squad arm of the progressive wing,” he said. “You have a choice between practical, common-sense leadership and radical socialism for this district.”
The Israel-Palestine conflict remains a point of Democratic division, and it’s a topic Republicans have focused on in an effort to peel away Jewish voters. How Mejia performs on the issue could serve as guidance for future Democratic candidates.
“My opponent can't distinguish between criticism of an administration, or in this instance a prime minister, and bigotry and hate, which is very troubling,” Mejia said. “I am very intentional on naming my critique, and I have been very clear that I believe Benjamin Netanyahu has committed war crimes.”
Beyond that topic, though, Mejia hopes that Democrats looking for lessons from this race take a deeper look at her organizing strategies, namely her holding events to educate and connect with constituents. Newsweek exclusively reported that the Democratic National Committee has issued a first-of-its-kind Organizing and Political Playbook with similar moves to what Mejia made being encouraged.
How she performs in a race she is extremely likely to win, and whether or not her margins exceed expectations, those grassroots strategies and her handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict are things fellow Democrats may focus on in the coming months. If she underperforms or suffers an upset defeat, Hathaway’s messaging would carry significant weight among other vulnerable Republicans looking for a way to overcome Trump’s sliding approval ratings.
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