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By Anna Commander
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A new Harvard Harris poll released this week shows the potential top candidates for 2028, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading Democrats and Vice President JD Vance outpacing the Republican field.
Why It Matters
Early polls have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge. Even with the election still years away, polling offers insight into candidate viability, voter sentiment and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.
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What To Know
According to the poll, Harris leads the pack for Democrats with 39 percent, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom with 30 percent, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York with 12 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's 9 percent and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker's 7 percent. The survey shows that 4 percent say someone else.
For Republicans, Vance has a commanding 53 percent of the potential vote, leading Donald Trump Jr. with 21 percent, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 17 percent and former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson's 5 percent. Three percent of poll respondents say someone else.
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters on January 28 and January 29 and has a margin of error of 1.99 percent.
The survey also shows Vance with a 38 percent favorability rating versus Rubio's 34 percent, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez's 32 percent and Tucker Carlson's 27 percent.
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What People Are Saying
Trump, in August during a news conference when asked if Vance is the MAGA successor: "Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he's the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it's too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point."
Robert Y. Shapiro, political science professor at Columbia University, to Newsweek via email on Monday: "The sitting Vice President is usually the default choice so this is not surprising. And Trump has mentioned him along with Rubio. But if you are looking for the leaders, see who Trump plays up the most, since the MAGA base so far has been playing 'follow the leader' in siding with Trump's positions on issues and it would seem attitudes toward people."
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email on Monday: "J.D. Vance has been Donald Trump's heir apparent since Trump switched to him for the running-mate position. Should the relationship between the men sour publicly, then Vance's standing could drop, but otherwise, Vance's real problem will not be MAGA. Vance's problem will be trying to motivate the many voters who usually stay home for elections but who show up for Trump himself. Vance simply doesn't have Donald Trump's hold on the American imagination."
What Happens Next
Polls surveying Americans on potential 2028 candidates are expected to continually get released.
Update 2/2/26, 9:44 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from political analysts.
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