New York Jets or Jacksonville Jaguars, Who Holds Advantage for First Overall Draft Pick?
The New York Jets won their first game of the season on Sunday, but may have derailed their long-term future. After 13 consecutive losses, the Jets pulled off a surprise 23-20 win in Los Angeles against the Rams, snapping the longest losing streak in franchise history and ensuring they won't join the 2008 Detroit Lions and the 2016 Cleveland Browns as the only teams in NFL history to go 0-16 over the course of a season.
Significantly, the win in Los Angeles means the Jets are no longer in pole position to land the first overall pick in next year's NFL Draft and with it presumptive top selection Trevor Lawrence. The Clemson star has long been considered the answer to the Jets' ongoing search for a franchise quarterback and over the last 13 weeks he had looked all but destined to move to New York, as the Gang Green plunged new depths and found themselves 0-13 for the first time in franchise history.
That scenario, however, dramatically changed on Sunday and Lawrence looks set to become the cornerstone of another dysfunctional franchise looking for a generational quarterback—the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are also 1-13 after suffering a 40-14 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore, their 13th consecutive loss.
While the Jets and the Jaguars have the same record, Jacksonville currently holds the tiebreaker and would land the first overall pick in the draft should both teams finish 1-15.
The tiebreaker is based on strength of schedule and the Jaguars have played a significantly weaker slate of opponents than the Jets this season. Crucially, Jacksonville also has a harder remaining schedule than New York, with the Jaguars' remaining two games ranking as the sixth-hardest in the league, three spots ahead of the Jets, as per Tankathon.
Both franchises host teams still chasing a playoff spot in Week 16, with Jacksonville welcoming the 7-7 Chicago Bears, while the Jets take on the 10-4 Cleveland Browns. Back-to-back wins have vaulted the Bears back into contention for a wildcard spot in the NFC, while the Browns have won four of their last five games and could still win the NFC North should results go their way.
In Week 17, the Jaguars travel to Indianapolis to face the 10-4 Colts, who are also in the thick of the playoff race. While Jacksonville's only win of the season came against their AFC South rivals in Week 1, the prospect of the Jaguars winning in Indianapolis to derail the Colts' playoff push appears remote at best.
The Jets also end their campaign against a divisional rival, traveling to New England to take on the Patriots, whose NFL record streak of 11 consecutive playoff appearances came to an end following a 22-12 road loss in Miami in Week 15.
Sunday's win came a week after the Jets were shellacked 40-3 against the Seattle Seahawks in the biggest defeat of Adam Gase's tenure as head coach.
According to ESPN Stats and Information, the Jets were 17-point underdogs against the Rams, the second-largest upset win for them in the Super Bowl era, behind only their triumph in Super Bowl III when Joe Namath inspired the 18-point underdogs Jets to a stunning win over the Baltimore Colts.
The Jets are also only the third team in NFL history to get their win against an opponent with a winning record after losing the first 13 games of the season. The Oakland Raiders pulled off the feat in 1962 as they beat the 9-3-1 Patriots, while the Colts snapped a 13-game losing streak when they defeated the 7-6 Tennessee Titans in 2011.
