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By Hollie Silverman
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New Zealand’s election remained too close to call Saturday after preliminary results gave Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s center-right coalition a razor-thin, one-seat parliamentary majority, even as the opposition Labour Party narrowly led the nationwide party vote.
The razor-thin result leaves Luxon’s bid for a second term unresolved and could leave the country waiting weeks for the final composition of its next government.
With preliminary results reported from all voting places, Labour held 29.36 percent of the party vote, compared with 29.21 percent for Luxon’s National Party. Labour received 710,330 party votes to National’s 706,680—a difference of just 3,650 votes, or 0.15 percentage points.
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National held 42 projected seats to Labour’s 36 after winning substantially more electorate contests. National’s coalition partners, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First, were projected to win 13 and 12 seats respectively, giving the center-right bloc 67 seats of a 66 majority.
Luxon stopped short of declaring victory, telling supporters that National had "a pathway to forming the next government," but adding: "I have to tell you right now it is too close to call.”
Newsweek reached out to New Zealand's Electoral Commission, and the heads of the Labour and National parties by email Saturday for comment.
Special Votes to Decide Outcome
The result remains preliminary, with special votes still to be included in the official count. The country's Electoral Commission estimated that approximately 399,000 special votes remained to be checked and counted, meaning the final composition of Parliament could still change.
Special votes include ballots cast by some New Zealanders overseas and voters who could not cast an ordinary vote in their electorate. Because those ballots are not included in election-night totals, final party percentages and seat allocations frequently shift.
Until the result is settled and a government is formed, the incumbent administration will operate under New Zealand's caretaker convention. The Electoral Commission aims to declare the official results on November 27.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins acknowledged the uncertainty late Saturday.
“Tonight, New Zealand has spoken," he told supporters. "It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said.”
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Broad Fragmentation and Minor Party Strength
Neither of the country's two dominant parties reached 30 percent of the preliminary party vote, reflecting limited enthusiasm for either major party seen in pre-election polling.
Smaller parties emerged with substantial representation:
- The Greens: Projected 16 seats
- ACT New Zealand: Projected 13 seats
- New Zealand First: Projected 12 seats
- The Opportunity Party: Projected 7 seats (5.96 percent of the party vote)
- Te Pāti Māori: Projected 5 seats (winning five electorate contests)
New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which voters cast one vote for a local electorate representative and another for a political party. Parliament normally has 120 seats, but the preliminary result produced 11 overhang seats, expanding it to 131 and raising the majority threshold to 66.
Polling Previewed a Tight Race
Polling in the final days of the campaign pointed to an exceptionally close election, but surveys offered conflicting pictures of whether National or Labour would emerge ahead.
A final 1News-Verian poll reported by Reuters put National at 30 percent and Labour at 29 percent, with the Greens at 16 percent, ACT at 10 percent, New Zealand First at 8 percent and Opportunity at 6 percent. National's narrow advantage over Labour was within the survey's margin of error.
A separate Post-Freshwater Strategy poll gave Labour a clearer advantage, putting it at 30.7 percent to National's 26.4 percent. The Greens stood at 13 percent, New Zealand First at 12 percent, ACT at 9.8 percent and Opportunity at 5.1 percent. The survey of 1,044 eligible voters had a reported margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
Context of Global Political Trends
New Zealand’s election comes amid a broader period of electoral strength for conservative, populist, and far-right parties in parts of Europe, though the country's political landscape does not neatly mirror that trend.
Far-right and populist parties have made significant gains across Europe in recent years, including Austria's Freedom Party winning its 2024 parliamentary election and right-wing gains in Germany. A 2026 analysis by the European Policy Centre found that momentum enjoyed by far-right and anti-establishment parties following the 2024 European Parliament elections had largely persisted.
New Zealand’s governing coalition differs. Luxon’s National Party is generally regarded as center-right, ACT as libertarian, and New Zealand First as populist. Furthermore, the preliminary results do not represent a straightforward conservative surge. National lost seats compared with the previous election, while ACT and New Zealand First gained ground.
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Newsweek*’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.* Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Steve Mollman and Anthony Murray.
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